Carátula del artículo
Future projections and ecological modeling for the distribution of
non-conventional food plants
Projeções futuras e modelagem ecológica para a distribuição de
plantas alimentícias não convencionais
Carla Karoline Gomes Dutra Borges carlaborges.am@gmail.com
Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Brazil
Jennifer Souza Tomaz jennifertomaz14@gmail.com
Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Brazil
Caroline de Souza Bezerra caroline_souza16@hotmail.com
Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Brazil
Marcos Silveira Wrege marcos.wrege@gmail.com
Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária
(Embrapa Florestas), Brazil
Maria Teresa Gomes Lopes mtglopes@hotmail.com
Universidade Federal do Amazonas, Brazil
Pesquisa Agropecuária Tropical, vol. 53, e76279, 2023
Escola de Agronomia/UFG
Received: 29 May 2023
Accepted: 29 September 2023
Published: 03 November 2023
INTRODUCTION
Approximately 390,000 plant species are known worldwide (Tuler et al. 2019). However, only one thousand are used for
human feeding (FAO 2018, Tuler et al. 2019). As for Brazil, its
biodiversity of plant species corresponds to more than 10 % of the world’s total,
comprising 46,097 native species, of which 4 to 5 thousand can be part of food
consumption (Terra & Ferreira 2020).
However, this natural richness and its potential for food use are still little known,
since, in Brazil, there is a preference for the consumption of arable species, since
the diet of Brazilians includes mainly rice, coffee and bean (Silva et al. 2017, Tuler et al.
2019, Terra & Ferreira 2020).
In this condition, the concept of non-conventional food plants emerges, since they
are plants that are totally or partially edible, but are generally not included in
the usual food consumption of the population and are often considered weeds, because
they grow spontaneously in various environments (Liberato et al. 2019, Terra &
Ferreira 2020, Silva et al.
2022).
Non-conventional food plants have a high genetic variability and rusticity, so they
can be maintained and managed according to the soil and climate conditions to which
they are adapted (Kelen et al. 2015, Terra & Ferreira 2020). These species can
represent an extra source of income for small farmers, contributing directly to the
local and regional economy, since they can be grown without many difficulties. In
addition, the Brazilian diet may vary (Biondo &
Zanetti 2018).
Currently, many unconventional species have had their food and medicinal potential
emphasized. Among them is Eryngium foetidum L., which has a wide
distribution in the Brazilian territory, with a phytogeographic domain in the Amazon
(Kinupp & Lorenzi 2019, Rodrigues et al. 2022). Popularly known as
“chicória”, “chicória-do-Pará”, “coentrão” or “chicória da Amazônia”, it is
considered an unconventional vegetable seasoning that has aroused the interest of
researchers, since it presents a high versatility as an herbal plant and spice,
besides increasing popularity, being among the main cultivated non-conventional
vegetables (Thomas et al. 2017, Leitão et al. 2020, Rosero-Gómez et al. 2020, Rodrigues et al. 2022).
Fridericia chica (Bonpl.) L. G. Lohmann also stands out, which has a
wide distribution in Brazil and confirmed occurrence in all Brazilian regions and
phytogeographic domains (Lohmann 2015, Batalha et al. 2022). It is popularly known as
“crajiru”, “carajiru”, “chica” and “cipó-cruz”, among others (Lorenzi et al. 2002, Lohmann
2015, Batalha et al. 2022). Its
leaves are used as tea and have anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, antidiabetic and
disinfectant activity (Oliveira et al. 2009,
Batalha et al. 2022).
Anthropogenic actions that lead to the reduction of plant areas put the floristic
biological diversity and food sovereignty at risk, what is closely related to the
consumption of non-conventional food plants. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct
studies that predict the scenarios of the occurrence zones of these species in the
upcoming decades to assist in conservation and research (Sousa et al. 2020). Climate change, being one of the main
factors that contribute to the loss of biodiversity (Aleixo et al. 2010), may cause the reduction of the distribution of
species, genetic variability and increase in endogamous mating (Tomaz et al. 2022). However, some species
exhibit phenotypic plasticity and can adapt well to new environmental conditions
(Aitken et al. 2008).
The issue of global climate change has gained worldwide attention, both politically
and scientifically. Its negative impact on human quality of life and the entire
planet was evident in the Sixth Climate Change Assessment Report (AR6) prepared by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2021 (IPCC 2021). Climate change causes changes in weather patterns,
which have severe impacts on all continents and oceans. In recent decades, there has
been a significant increase in natural disasters such as floods, droughts, forest
fires, cyclones and storms, amongst others. These changes are highlighted by several
studies, including Reis et al. (2017) and
Silva & Behr (2021).
Studies also have shown that climate change can be demonstrated through modeling,
particularly over an extended period (Almeida &
Cavalcante 2020). One of the most recommended methodologies for studying
ecology, evolution, conservation and genetic breeding is the Ecological Niche
Modeling. This methodology enables researchers to correlate the distribution of a
species with environmental variables, which, in turn, allow them to identify the
best conditions for the occurrence of the species and determine the impact of
climate change on it. This information is useful in defining measures for the
conservation of species (Wrege et al. 2017,
Tourne et al. 2019, Sousa et al. 2020).
Thus, this study aimed to model the potential distribution of E.
foetidum and F. chica under current and future climate
scenarios using the Ecological Niche Modeling.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
The geographical coordinates information for consistent occurrences of
Eryngium foetidum and Fridericia chica were
obtained from open access databases such as the Reference Center for Environmental
Information (CRIA 2022), the SpeciesLink
platform (CRIA 2022) and the Global
Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF 2022)
in 2022, at the Universidade Federal do Amazonas, in Manaus, Amazonas state, Brazil.
All data were limited to Brazilian phytogeographic domains and were processed using
the geographic information system (GIS) in the ArcMap software (Esri 2011). The occurrences of the species were
analyzed using the tidyverse package (Wickham
2017, RStudio 2022), which helped
in removing duplicates, incorrect and missing coordinates, as well as occurrences
that did not have location data.
A total of 19 bioclimatic variables, obtained from the WorldClim project dataset,
version 2.1 (Fick & Hijmans 2017), were
used. These variables are derived from monthly values of air temperature (minimum
and maximum; in ºC) and rainfall (mm) (Wrege et al.
2017, Rebello et al. 2023). The
spatial resolution of the layers was 2.5 arc-minutes, which is equivalent to an area
of approximately 5 km² (Rebello et al. 2023).
The data were processed using the R Development Core
Team (2022) and its RStudio Team add-on
(2022).
Out of the 19 principal components, it was discovered that six were responsible for
most of the variation. These six components were used in the species modeling
process and accounted for 97.8 % of the first PCA eigenvectors. The six components
are: Bio4 (temperature seasonality - standard deviation multiplied by 100); Bio6
(minimum temperature in the coldest month); Bio9 (average temperature in the driest
quarter); Bio13 (accumulated rainfall in the wettest month, measured in mm); Bio14
(accumulated rainfall in the driest month); and Bio17 (rainfall accumulated in the
driest quarter, measured in mm).
The potential distribution of species was obtained by multiple linear regression, so
that the bioclimatic variables were related to the numerical models of latitude,
longitude and altitude (Gomes et al. 2022).
The scenarios were obtained from general circulation models (GCM) available at the
Data Distribution Centre of the sixth Evaluation Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2021). Three
atmospheric circulation models were selected: HadGEM-GC31-LL, IPSL-CM6Ä-LR (Firpo et al. 2022) and MIROC6 (Monteverde et al. 2022), two of which were
averaged to increase the model accuracy (Dormann et
al. 2018).
According to the obtained data, the present period (2009-2019) and future projections
(2020-2050 and 2051-2070) were considered, with two climate scenarios [“less
pessimistic” (RCP 4.5) and “more pessimistic” (RCP 8.5)] for the emission of
greenhouse gases, whereas, for the RCP 8.5, strategies that reduce the greenhouse
effect were not considered (Li et al. 2020,
Gomes et al. 2022, Tomaz et al. 2022), in addition to considering the six
Brazilian phytogeographic domains (Amazon, Caatinga, Cerrado, Pantanal, Atlantic
Forest and Pampa).
The Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Niche Mosaic and Environmental Distance
algorithms were used to predict the species distribution with a higher accuracy. To
determine the best-performing model, the area under the curve (AUC) metric was
evaluated by integrating the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis (Allouche et al. 2006). The AUC ranges between 0
and 1 (Fielding & Bell 1997), and the
Environmental Distance model was found to have the best distribution for both
species, as it showed an AUC value of 1.0, indicating a perfect discrimination.
The maps generated by OpenModeller software were saved in the American Standard Code
for Information Interchange (ASCII) format and contained binary values. These maps
were transformed to the “raster” format according to the Esri (2011) protocol. The categories were established on a
gradient scale from 0 to 1, where 0 represented areas without the possibility of
occurrence, and 1 indicated areas with the maximum possibility of occurrence (Muñoz et al. 2011, Gomes et al. 2022).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
After the data passed through the cleaning procedure, a final occurrence matrix was
obtained, with 352 single points of occurrence of Eryngium foetidum
in South America, sufficient for the modeling study of the species. Figure 1 shows the distribution of the species by
the points of occurrence in the Brazilian territory.
Figure 1
Occurrence data of Eryngium foetidum in South
America.
The correspondence-based distribution model of the species for the current period
indicates its climatic suitability. The species is distributed across six Brazilian
phytogeographic domains, with the Amazon region having the highest occurrence (Figure 2A). The Eryngium genus
is cosmopolitan and South America is believed to be the center of its species
diversity (Acharya et al. 2022). Therefore,
the Environmental Distance algorithm’s distribution prediction aligns with the
distribution patterns described in the literature (Kinupp & Lorenzi 2019, Rodrigues et
al. 2022).
Figure 2
Projection for 2009-2019, in the current period (A), and 2020-2050
(B) and 2051-2070 (C), in the “less pessimistic” scenario (RCP 4.5), of
Eryngium foetidum in the Brazilian phytogeographic
domains, according to global climate change.
The projections for the future, based on the RCP 4.5 (Figures 2B and 2C) and RCP 8.5
(Figures 3B and 3C) scenarios, indicate that there will be a decrease in areas
suitable for the growth of E. foetidum in all the Brazilian
phytogeographic regions during the 2020-2050 and 2051-2070 periods. This highlights
the susceptibility of the species to the impacts of climate change.
Figure 3
Projection for 2009-2019, in the current period (A), and 2020-2050
(B) and 2051-2070 (C), in the “more pessimistic” scenario (RCP 8.5), of
Eryngium foetidum in the Brazilian phytogeographic
domains, according to global climate change.
In the RCP 4.5 scenario for the 2020-2050 period, it was possible to verify a
significant reduction in areas of climate adaptation for the species, especially in
the Amazon, Pampa and Pantanal domains, indicating a region of greater vulnerability
to climate change. On the other hand, it is possible to verify that, although in a
smaller proportion of the area, the individuals present in the Caatinga, Cerrado and
the coastal part of the Atlantic Forest presented areas of climatic adequacy for the
occurrence of the species (Figure 2B).
For the 2051-2070 period, it was observed that, in addition to the Pantanal and Pampa
domains, the Amazon presents more significant losses of areas favorable to the
distribution of the species, and that the Caatinga and the coastal part of the
Atlantic Forest tend to provide areas of climatic adaptation for E.
foetidum (Figure 2C).
Climatic factors such as temperature and luminosity directly affect the growth and
development of unconventional vegetables, especially those with a short cycle, such
as E. foetidum (Hirata & Hirata
2015, Gomes et al. 2023). In the
Amazon phytogeographic domain, there will be a loss of suitable area for the
species, suggesting that climate change will reduce the occurrence of E.
foetidum in its native region. In areas of the Cerrado, even with the
increase in temperature in a future scenario (Ferreira et al. 2022), there will be environmental adequacy for the
species. However, it is possible to observe little empirical support in the relation
climatic adequacy and plant performance (Sporbert et
al. 2022), which suggests that climatic adequacy does not guarantee its
occurrence. Thus, understanding how climate change affects plant performance is of
fundamental importance to verify the response of these species to climate change and
to draw conservation strategies (Sutherland et al.
2013).
According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, there will be a significant decline in the
occurrence of species in the Amazon phytogeographic domain from 2020 to 2050 (Figure 3B), when compared to the current period
(Figure 3A). In the following period, from
2051 to 2070, it will decrease in almost all the six Brazilian phytogeographic
domains (Figure 3C).
In the northeastern part of the Amazon, under high emissions, the RCP 8.5 scenario
indicates a significant increase in areas vulnerable to forest fires during the
2020-2040 and 2080-2100 periods. This could adversely affect biodiversity and
ecosystems on a local scale (Santana et al.
2022). In the southern Amazon, it is predicted that 16 % of the region’s
forests will be affected by climate change by 2050, primarily due to areas
susceptible to forest fires (Brando et al.
2020).
Based on the evaluation of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, there has been a
reduction of areas suitable for the growth and development of E.
foetidum during the studied periods (Figures 4 and 5). The Amazon and
Pantanal domains are highly sensitive to variations in climate, making them the most
vulnerable to the ongoing climate change (Marengo
& Souza Júnior 2018). Conversely, the Pampa phytogeographic domain
has exhibited limited areas suitable for E. foetidum in all the
studied scenarios, due to the intense agricultural activities in that region (Suzuki et al. 2019).
Figure 4
Projection of distribution area (in km2) by
phytogeographic domain of Eryngium foetidum in the
“less pessimistic” scenario (RCP 4.5), for the current (2009-2019) and
future (2020-2050 and 2051-2070) periods.
Figure 5
Projection of distribution area (in km2) by
phytogeographic domain of Eryngium foetidum in the
“more pessimistic” scenario (RCP 8.5), for the current (2009-2019) and
future (2020-2050 and 2051-2070) periods.
After the removal of outliers, 186 georeferencing points were obtained in South
America for the F. chica species (Figure 6).
Figure 6
Points of occurrence of Fridericia chica in Brazil
and South America.
The species comprises all the Brazilian phytogeographic domains and may occur from
the Amazon to the extreme south of the country (Figure
7A). Thus, it is possible to characterize it as a resilient species that
presents survival mechanisms, since it occurs in different environments (Brito et al. 2015, Batalha et al. 2022).
Figure 7
Projection for 2009-2019, in the current period (A), and 2020-2050
(B) and 2051-2070 (C), in the “less pessimistic” scenario (RCP 4.5), of
Fridericia chica in the Brazilian phytogeographic
domains, according to global climate change.
For the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the 2020-2050 (Figure
7B) and 2051-2070 (Figure 7C)
periods, it was observed that the Amazon, Cerrado and Pantanal domains are the most
vulnerable to climate change. However, due to its extension and for being the
distribution center of the species, the Amazon domain is the most susceptible to the
loss of suitable area (Figure 7).
Fridericia chica has a large-scale distribution in the Atlantic
Forest, Caatinga, Cerrado, Pantanal and Pampa domains, with predominance in the
Amazon, corroborating studies such as Batalha et al.
(2022), which states that the species has a common occurrence in the
Amazon region, being an autochthonous species that develops in tropical forests and
stands out in secondary forests, that is, adapts easily to hostile environments.
According to the future projections made for the RCP 8.5 scenario for the 2020-2050
(Figure 8B) and 2051-2070 (Figure 8C) periods, there will be a considerable
area reduction in all the Brazilian phytogeographic domains suitable for the
occurrence of the species (Figure 8).
Figure 8
Projection for 2009-2019, in the current period (A), and 2020-2050
(B) and 2051-2070 (C), in the “more pessimistic” scenario (RCP 8.5), of
Fridericia chica in the Brazilian phytogeographic
domains, according to global climate change.
The analysis of future scenarios shows that there will be a reduction in areas
suitable for the presence of F. chica during the 2020-2050 and
2051-2070 periods (Figures 9 and 10). As a result, the Amazon, Pampa and Pantanal
domains will be the most affected.
Figure 9
Projection of distribution area (in km2) by
phytogeographic domain of Fridericia chica in the “less
pessimistic” scenario (RCP 4.5), for the current (2009-2019) and future
(2020-2050 and 2051-2070) periods.
Figure 10
Projection of distribution area (in km2) by
phytogeographic domain of Fridericia chica in the “more
pessimistic” scenario (RCP 8.5), for the current (2009-2019) and future
(2020-2050 and 2051-2070) periods.
Anthropogenic and economic activities such as urbanization, agriculture and
agricultural expansion directly affect the Amazon vegetation cover, generating
impacts on the climate at scales that can reach global levels (Mertens et al. 2002, Ometto et
al. 2011, Arraut et al. 2012). In
addition, climate change scenarios for this domain, designed by climate models
obtained through the IPCC report (IPCC 2021),
show an increase in the average air temperature until the end of the 21st Century
above 4 ºC and a reduction in rainfall by up to 40 % (IPCC 2021).
The Amazon phytogeographic domain is currently facing a significant risk due to
extreme climate variations predicted for the region. However, the risk is not just
limited to climate change, but also to the existing synergistic interactions with
other threats, such as deforestation, forest fragmentation and fires, since
deforestation poses an immediate threat to the Amazon rainforest, while climate
change is a more long-term threat (Marengo &
Souza Júnior 2018).
The Pampa and Pantanal domains, just like the Amazon, are extremely delicate, due to
the fast growth of agriculture and expansion (Fausto
et al. 2016). The Pantanal area is especially vulnerable to
deforestation, because of the increased demand for pastures and the cultivation of
crops such as soybean and corn, which require large areas of cleared land for
planting (Azevedo & Saito 2013, Fausto et al. 2016).
As for the Pantanal, it is considered the most extensive tropical flood area in the
world, and, between October and December 2019, it had the highest number of fires in
the last 17 years (Brasil 2020). It is
considered one of the most essential phytogeographic domains in Brazil. It presents
microclimatic changes in the transformation of forests into pasture areas, directly
affecting the temperature (Biudes et al.
2012) and, consequently, the species that occur there.
Ecological and evolutionary history can determine the suitable area for a species
according to literature data (Barve et al.
2011). Factors that determine these areas include tolerance limits, the
needs of the species, interaction with other species and its potential for dispersal
(Cabral & Schurr 2010). These factors
are affected by the locations of rivers, climate, rock formations and other barriers
which may change over time (Soberón 2010).
The species can respond to physical and biotic environments in different ways, and
its ecological niches can remain stable or evolve (Vanderwal et al. 2009). This may explain the behavior of the species
when comparing the base period with future scenarios.
Due to the significance of the E. foetidum and F.
chica species for small farmers and the regional economy, it is highly
recommended to conduct sampling and seed collections of their populations in the
Amazon. Moreover, it is crucial to prioritize this region for the implantation of
new plantings and development of germplasm collections. This approach will help in
conducting research on plant breeding, genetic variability, conservation and
potential for adaptation and regeneration of these species.
CONCLUSION
The occurrence areas of Eryngium foetidum and Fridericia
chica are severely affected by global climate change, especially by
temperature and rainfall, in the Brazilian phytogeographic domains of the Amazon,
Pantanal and Pampa. In the Amazon, the species can become extinct, in the “more
pessimistic” scenario, by 2070.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This research was financially supported by the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento
Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de
Nível Superior (Capes). We thank the Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do
Amazonas (FAPEAM) for the scholarship to the first author.
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