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	<front>
		<journal-meta>
			<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">sn</journal-id>
			<journal-title-group>
				<journal-title>Sociedade &amp; Natureza</journal-title>
				<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">Soc. nat.</abbrev-journal-title>
			</journal-title-group>
			<issn pub-type="epub">1982-4513</issn>
			<issn pub-type="ppub">0103-1570</issn>
			<publisher>
				<publisher-name>Editora da Universidade Federal de Uberlândia - EDUFU</publisher-name>
			</publisher>
		</journal-meta>
		<article-meta>
			<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">00001</article-id>
			<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14393/SN-v37-2025-72756</article-id>
			<article-categories>
				<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
					<subject>Artigos</subject>
				</subj-group>
			</article-categories>
			<title-group>
				<article-title>A influência de variáveis ambientais na distribuição de manguezais no Nordeste do Brasil</article-title>
				<trans-title-group xml:lang="en">
					<trans-title>The Influence of Environmental Variables on the Distribution of Mangroves in Northeast Brazil</trans-title>
				</trans-title-group>
			</title-group>
			<contrib-group>
				<contrib contrib-type="author">
					<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0003-1037-5685</contrib-id>
					<name>
						<surname>Sá</surname>
						<given-names>Ana Caroline Damasceno Souza de</given-names>
					</name>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/conceptualization/">conceitualização</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/data-curation/">curadoria de dados</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/formal-analysis/">análise de dados</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/investigation/">pesquisa</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/methodology/">metodologia</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-original-draft/">redação do manuscrito original</role>
					<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
				</contrib>
				<contrib contrib-type="author">
					<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0003-0863-0771</contrib-id>
					<name>
						<surname>Pinheiro</surname>
						<given-names>Lidriana</given-names>
					</name>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/conceptualization/">conceitualização</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/methodology/">metodologia</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/supervision/">supervisão</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-original-draft/">redação do manuscrito original</role>
					<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref>
				</contrib>
			</contrib-group>
			<aff id="aff1">
				<label>1</label>
				<institution content-type="original"> Universidade Estadual do Ceará - UECE, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil. carolsouza.geo@gmail.com</institution>
				<institution content-type="normalized">Universidade Estadual do Ceará - UECE</institution>
				<addr-line>
					<named-content content-type="city">Fortaleza</named-content>
				</addr-line>
				<country country="BR">Brasil</country>
				<email>carolsouza.geo@gmail.com</email>
			</aff>
			<aff id="aff2">
				<label>2</label>
				<institution content-type="original"> Universidade Federal do Ceará - UFC, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil. lidriana@ufc.br</institution>
				<institution content-type="normalized">Universidade Federal do Ceará - UFC</institution>
				<addr-line>
					<named-content content-type="city">Fortaleza</named-content>
				</addr-line>
				<country country="BR">Brasil</country>
				<email>lidriana@ufc.br</email>
			</aff>
			<!--<pub-date date-type="pub" publication-format="electronic">
				<day>23</day>
				<month>01</month>
				<year>2025</year>
			</pub-date>
			<pub-date date-type="collection" publication-format="electronic">
				<year>2025</year>
			</pub-date>-->
			<pub-date pub-type="epub-ppub">
				<year>2025</year>
			</pub-date>
			<volume>37</volume>
			<issue>1</issue>
			<elocation-id>e72756</elocation-id>
			<history>
				<date date-type="received">
					<day>13</day>
					<month>03</month>
					<year>2024</year>
				</date>
				<date date-type="accepted">
					<day>25</day>
					<month>09</month>
					<year>2024</year>
				</date>
				<date date-type="pub">
					<day>23</day>
					<month>01</month>
					<year>2025</year>
				</date>
			</history>
			<permissions>
				<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xml:lang="pt">
					<license-p>Este é um artigo publicado em acesso aberto sob uma licença Creative Commons</license-p>
				</license>
			</permissions>
			<abstract>
				<title>Resumo</title>
				<p>Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo espacializar os manguezais e correlacioná-los com variáveis ambientais, a fim de verificar se existe variação na distribuição dos bosques de mangue e apicum em áreas com diferentes padrões de precipitação e períodos de seca dentro de uma mesma região brasileira. Foram utilizadas imagens do satélite CBERS-4A e vetorização manual dos polígonos de bosques de mangues e apicuns no software QGIS v. 3.10.14, além de trabalhos de campo. A análise de Correlação de Pearson, realizada no software RStudio, considerou variáveis como precipitação, meses secos, espécies de mangue, fragmentação e tamanho da área. Os resultados indicam que a variação na precipitação e o número de meses secos têm uma forte influência na distribuição dos manguezais. Por exemplo, no estuário hipersalino Piranhas-Açu (RN), observou-se uma grande fragmentação dos bosques de mangue, com 1.379 polígonos mapeados em uma área de 2.396 ha, recebendo 500 mm de precipitação anual e 8 meses secos. Já nos estuários de Timonha (CE) e Itarema (CE), com 1.000 mm de chuva e 6 meses secos, foram identificados 131 e 118 polígonos, respectivamente, em 2.482 e 1.093 ha. Em contrapartida, o estuário do rio Mamanguape (PB), com a maior precipitação anual de 1.750 mm e apenas 3 meses secos, tem uma distribuição de 4.256 ha em 24 polígonos. Em relação aos apicuns, o Piranhas-Açu (RN) apresenta uma fragmentação de 674 polígonos em uma área de 4.858 ha e o estuário do rio Mamanguape (PB) seis polígonos mapeados em uma área de 2,4 ha. A pesquisa destaca os impactos de variáveis climáticas na distribuição dos manguezais, bem como a interferência antrópica no uso do solo devido a atividades econômicas e os efeitos negativos da fragmentação, ressaltando a importância da conservação e manejo adequado desses ecossistemas vitais.</p>
			</abstract>
			<trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
				<title>Abstract</title>
				<p>This research aims to spatialize mangroves and correlate them with environmental variables, exploring potential variation in the distribution of mangrove and salt flat forests in relation to areas with different rainfall patterns and drought periods within the same Brazilian region. CBERS-4A satellite images and manual vectorization of mangrove and apicum forest polygons in QGIS v. 3.10.14 software were used, as well as fieldwork. Pearson's correlation analysis, carried out using RStudio software, considered variables such as rainfall, dry months, mangrove species, fragmentation, and area size. The results indicate that variations in rainfall and the number of dry months have a strong influence on the distribution of mangroves. For example, in the Piranhas-Açu hypersaline estuary (RN), a large fragmentation of mangrove forests was observed, with 1.379 polygons mapped in an area of 2.396 ha, receiving 500 mm of annual rainfall and having 8 dry months. In the Timonha (CE) and Itarema (CE) estuaries, with 1000 mm of rain and 6 dry months, 131 and 118 polygons were identified, respectively, on 2482 and 1093 ha. In contrast, the Mamanguape River estuary (PB), with the highest annual rainfall of 1750 mm and only 3 dry months, has a distribution of 4256 ha in 24 polygons. As for the salt flats, the Piranhas-Açu (RN) has a fragmentation of 674 polygons in an area of 4858 ha and the Mamanguape River estuary (PB) has six polygons mapped in an area of 2.4 ha. The research highlights the impacts of climatic variables on the distribution of mangroves, anthropogenic interference in land use due to economic activities and the negative effects of fragmentation, underscoring the importance of conservation and proper management of these vital ecosystems.</p>
			</trans-abstract>
			<kwd-group xml:lang="pt">
				<title>Palavras-chave:</title>
				<kwd>Bosque de mangue</kwd>
				<kwd>Apicum</kwd>
				<kwd>Costa semiárida do Brasil</kwd>
				<kwd>Biogeografia de manguezais</kwd>
			</kwd-group>
			<kwd-group xml:lang="en">
				<title>Keywords:</title>
				<kwd>Mangrove forests</kwd>
				<kwd>Salt flats</kwd>
				<kwd>Brazilian semi-arid coast Mangrove biogeography</kwd>
			</kwd-group>
			<funding-group>
				<award-group award-type="contract">
					<funding-source>Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES)</funding-source>
					<award-id>88887.513668/2020-00</award-id>
				</award-group>
				<award-group award-type="contract">
					<funding-source>CNPQ</funding-source>
					<award-id>316941/2021</award-id>
				</award-group>
				<funding-statement>As autoras agradecem ao apoio da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Código de Financiamento 001, (processo nº. 88887.513668/2020-00) pela concessão de bolsa durante o período de doutoramento (Ana Caroline Damasceno Souza de Sá), ao programa CAPES/PRINT (Lidriana Pinheiro), ao CNPQ (316941/2021) (Lidriana Pinheiro) e ao Programa de Pós-graduação em Geografia (ProPGeo) da Universidade Estadual do Ceará (UECE).</funding-statement>
			</funding-group>
			<counts>
				<fig-count count="5"/>
				<table-count count="3"/>
				<equation-count count="0"/>
				<ref-count count="86"/>
			</counts>
		</article-meta>
	</front>
	<body>
		<sec sec-type="intro">
			<title>INTRODUÇÃO</title>
			<p>Os manguezais são ecossistemas localizados na interface continental e marinha, com dinâmica diária da ação das marés, condicionando características inerentes às espécies que se desenvolvem neste ambiente salobro e com altas concentrações de matéria orgânica (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B82">Tomlinson, 1986</xref>). </p>
			<p>Segundo <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli, Vale e Cintrón (2015</xref>), os manguezais detém feições caracterizadas como <italic>continuum</italic>: lavado, mangue (bosque ou floresta de mangue) e apicum. A primeira são os bancos de sedimentos lamosos ou areno-lamosos, sem vegetação, inundados constantemente pelos regimes de marés. O bosque de mangue apresenta vegetação lenhosa típica arbórea que coloniza os extensos substratos halomórficos. O apicum, também denominado de planície hipersalina ou salgados, são zonas de supramaré, onde a água do mar ou do estuário atinge nas preamares de sizígia, podendo limitar-se na transição entre áreas de manguezal e terra firme.</p>
			<p>Estes ambientes através de suas funções ecológicas geram diversos serviços ecossistêmicos à sociedade (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">Costanza <italic>et al</italic>., 1997</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">Barbier <italic>et al</italic>., 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B84">Vo <italic>et al</italic>., 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B59">Meireles, 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B50">Lee <italic>et al</italic>., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">Duke, 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B61">Mukherjee <italic>et al</italic>., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">Costa <italic>et al</italic>., 2022</xref>), em detrimento das pressões humanas que acarretam a degradação ambiental (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">Lacerda <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>).</p>
			<p>As modificações ocorridas no litoral semiárido podem ser elencadas destacando a redução das taxas de precipitação e consequente hipersalinidade em estuários; diminuição dos fluxos terra-oceano; erosão costeira; elevação do nível do mar; aquecimento global e eventos climáticos extremos; eutrofização e perda de biodiversidade devido às atividades humanas (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>). </p>
			<p>Essas alterações têm consequências significativas para a prestação de serviços ecossistêmicos, como a segurança alimentar, demandando estudos para analisar o potencial impacto das mudanças na dinâmica costeira sobre a estrutura e funcionamento dos ecossistemas costeiros e marinhos (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>). É de importante relevância a compreensão da estrutura e funcionamento dos manguezais para possibilitar conhecimento e a geração de ações estratégicas de planejamento e conservação (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">ICMBio, 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B64">Pinheiro <italic>et al</italic>., 2023</xref>).</p>
			<p>Considerando os manguezais em diferentes contextos climáticos, isto é, em áreas com distintos padrões de precipitação e períodos de seca dentro de uma mesma região brasileira, a pesquisa tem como principal questão norteadora: existe diferença na distribuição de feições de bosque de mangue e apicum localizados em ambientes com diferenças climáticas na região Nordeste do Brasil? Portanto, o objetivo desta pesquisa consiste em espacializar os manguezais e correlacioná-los com fatores ambientais, a fim de verificar se existe variação na distribuição da arquitetura dos bosques de mangue e apicum em diferentes condições climáticas.</p>
		</sec>
		<sec sec-type="methods">
			<title>METODOLOGIA</title>
			<sec>
				<title>Área de estudo</title>
				<p>A área de estudo compreende quatro áreas, os manguezais do rio Timonha (CE) - Área 1, Itarema (CE) - Área 2, Piranhas-Açu (RN) - Área 3 e Mamanguape (PB) - Área 4 (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f1">Figura 1</xref>).</p>
				<p>
					<fig id="f1">
						<label>Figura 1</label>
						<caption>
							<title>Mapa de localização dos manguezais estudados</title>
						</caption>
						<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf1.jpg"/>
						<attrib>Fonte: <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic> (2016</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">IBGE (2021</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B42">ICMBIo (2022</xref>). Elaborado pelas autoras (2024).</attrib>
					</fig>
				</p>
				<p>A área de estudos no Litoral do Nordeste é caracterizado por dois tipos climáticos distintos: Clima Tropical de Zona Equatorial (Costa Semiárida Brasileira) e o tropical úmido (Costa dos Recifes) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>). O estuário do rio Timonha (área 1), situa-se nos municípios semiáridos de Chaval e Barroquinha, Oeste do estado do Ceará, na Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) Delta do Parnaíba (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">Brasil, 1996</xref>). </p>
				<p>Ainda na Costa Semiárida, foram estudados os sistemas estuarinos-lagunares de Porto dos Barcos e do rio Aracatimirim, no município de Itarema/Ceará (área 2). No estado do Rio Grande do Norte, localiza-se o estuário do rio Piranhas-Açu entre os municípios de Porto do Mangue e Macau (área 3), região popularmente conhecida como Pólo Costa Branca, devido a elevada produção de sal marinho (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">Diniz <italic>et al</italic>., 2020</xref>). </p>
				<p>O estuário do rio Mamanguape está localizado no estado da Paraíba, nos municípios de Marcação e Rio Tinto (área 4), na Área de Relevante Interesse Ecológico (ARIE) Manguezais da Foz do Rio Mamanguape (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B12">Brasil, 1985</xref>), que tem seus limites sobrepostos pela Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) da Barra do Rio Mamanguape, e incluindo parte dos municípios de Lucena e Baía da Traição (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Brasil, 1993</xref>). </p>
			</sec>
			<sec>
				<title>Procedimentos metodológicos</title>
				<p>A identificação da feição do manguezal “bosque de mangue” foi realizada com base na estrutura caracterizada por <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli, Vale e Cintrón (2015</xref>). Para a espacialização foi aplicada a metodologia de Interpretação Visual de Imagens (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">Jensen, 2000</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">Florenzano, 2011</xref>), elaborando-se uma chave de interpretação para análise visual e vetorização dos polígonos (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f2">Figura 2</xref>), na escala de 1:10.000, com auxílio do <italic>software</italic> QGIS v. 3.10.14 (Essen/GNU - General PublicLicense©) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B66">QGIS TEAM, 2021</xref>).</p>
				<p>
					<fig id="f2">
						<label>Figura 2</label>
						<caption>
							<title>Chave de interpretação dos manguezais</title>
						</caption>
						<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf2.jpg"/>
						<attrib>Fonte: <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">INPE (2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">2022</xref>). Elaborado pelas autoras (2024).</attrib>
					</fig>
				</p>
				<p>Foram considerados os critérios utilizados por <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B80">Souza (2022</xref>) e <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B69">Sá (2024</xref>), em que no mapeamento da feição “Bosque de Mangue” consideraram-se a tonalidade e coloração verde-escura; com textura rugosa e forma irregular. Posteriormente os dados mapeados foram validados em campo com auxílio de imagens aéreas obtidas por drone, modelo DJI Mavic Air 2.</p>
				<p>Em específico para a espacialização dos bosques de mangue do rio Timonha (CE), que está localizado muito próximo do rio Ubatuba, devido à mistura de águas dos rios, não há como delimitar precisamente até onde chega a influência de ambos, foi definido como critério um <italic>buffer</italic> na margem esquerda a partir da legislação vigente, lei nº 12.651/2012 (Novo Código Florestal) que delimita as Áreas de Preservação Permanente (APP) de acordo com a faixa do curso do rio (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">Brasil, 2012</xref>). </p>
				<p>Foram consideradas três faixas ao longo do estuário, sendo a foz o local de maior área de faixa (<italic>buffer</italic>), delimitando 500m, pois a largura do rio é superior a 600m, em seguida, onde a largura do estuário encontra-se entre 600 e 200m, a margem esquerda foi de 200m e por fim, onde a largura encontrava-se entre 200 e 50m, a margem foi delimitada em 100m.</p>
				<p>Para a análise de variáveis ambientais (<xref ref-type="table" rid="t1">Quadro 1</xref>), foi realizada a Correlação de Pearson, conforme <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B76">Silva <italic>et al</italic>. (2022</xref>), buscando analisar se existe uma possível relação entre elas:</p>
				<p>
					<table-wrap id="t1">
						<label>Quadro 1</label>
						<caption>
							<title>Variáveis ambientais da área de estudo</title>
						</caption>
						<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
							<colgroup>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
							</colgroup>
							<thead>
								<tr>
									<th align="center">VARIÁVEL</th>
									<th align="center">FONTE</th>
									<th align="center">CRITÉRIO</th>
								</tr>
							</thead>
							<tbody>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Normais de precipitações médias anuais</td>
									<td align="center" rowspan="2">
										<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">Bagnouls e Gaussen (1953</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B43">INMET (2009</xref>) e <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic> (2016</xref>)</td>
									<td align="center">Normal climatológica</td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Quantidade de meses secos no ano</td>
									<td align="center">Total das Precipitações (P) em mm é igual ou inferior ao dobro da Temperatura do ar (T) em Graus Celsius (Mês seco = P≤ 2.T)</td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Espécies de mangue</td>
									<td align="center">Atividades de campo</td>
									<td align="center">Identificação florística</td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Fragmentos (espacialização das feições dos polígonos mapeados)</td>
									<td align="center" rowspan="2">Imagens de satélite</td>
									<td align="center" rowspan="2">Polígonos mapeados conforme <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli, Vale e Cintrón (2015</xref>)</td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Tamanho da área (ha)</td>
								</tr>
							</tbody>
						</table>
						<table-wrap-foot>
							<fn id="TFN1">
								<p>Fonte: As autoras (2024).</p>
							</fn>
						</table-wrap-foot>
					</table-wrap>
				</p>
				<p>Para a análise dos dados, foi utilizado o <italic>software</italic> R (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B67">R CORE TEAM, 2022</xref>), RStudio (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">R STUDIO TEAM, 2022</xref>), com o Rtools 4.3.3 (5863-5818).</p>
			</sec>
		</sec>
		<sec>
			<title>ESPACIALIZAÇÃO DOS MANGUEZAIS</title>
			<p>No Semiárido do Nordeste, localizado no clima tropical de Zona Equatorial (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>), o estuário com os mais baixos índices é o complexo Piranhas-Açu (RN) (área 3), com normais de precipitação médias anuais em torno de 500 mm/ano e oito meses secos (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B44">INMET, 2021</xref>). As áreas do rio Timonha e Itarema (CE) possuem precipitações de 1.000 mm/ano e seis meses secos (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">FUNCEME, 2023a</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">2023b</xref>). No Clima Tropical do Nordeste Oriental, de subdomínio úmido moderado e três meses secos, a área do rio Mamanguape possui Precipitação Média Anual de 1.750 mm (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>) (<xref ref-type="table" rid="t2">Tabela 1</xref>).</p>
			<p>Foram registradas quatro espécies de mangue verdadeiro nas áreas 1, 2 e 4 (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f3">Figura 3</xref>): I) <italic>Rhizophora mangle</italic> Linnaeus (1753); II. <italic>Laguncularia racemosa</italic> C. F. Gaert (1807); III. <italic>Avicennia germinans</italic> Linnaeus (1764); IV. <italic>Avicennia schaueriana</italic> Stapf &amp; Leechm (1939). Na área 3 foram identificadas três espécies de mangue verdadeiro <italic>R. mangle</italic>, <italic>L. racemosa</italic> e <italic>A. schaueriana</italic>. Nas quatro áreas em estudo, foram identificadas uma espécie associada ao mangue, a <italic>Conocarpus erectus</italic> Linnaeus (1753), sendo contabilizada em cinco e quatro espécies, conforme a tabela 1.</p>
			<p>A área 4 do Mamanguape apresenta a maior extensão de bosques de mangue, totalizando 4.256 hectares distribuídos em 24 polígonos (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f4">Figura 4</xref>). O manguezal do rio Timonha (área 1) abrange uma área de 2.482 hectares, fragmentado em 131 polígonos. Por sua vez, o bosque de mangue do Piranhas-Açu (área 3) exibe a maior fragmentação, com 1.379 polígonos e uma área de 2.396 hectares. A menor extensão é encontrada em Itarema (área 2), com 1.093 hectares distribuídos em 118 fragmentos.</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t2">
					<label>Tabela 1</label>
					<caption>
						<title>Características ambientais dos manguezais estudados</title>
					</caption>
					<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
						<colgroup>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
						</colgroup>
						<thead>
							<tr>
								<th align="center">MANGUEZAIS</th>
								<th align="center">CLIMA²</th>
								<th align="center">SUB- DOMINIO</th>
								<th align="center">VARIEDADES CLIMATICAS</th>
								<th align="center">MESES SECOS</th>
								<th align="center">NORMAIS DE PRECIPITAÇAO³</th>
								<th align="center">MANGUE</th>
							</tr>
						</thead>
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td align="center">Rio Timonha (CE) Área 1</td>
								<td align="center" rowspan="3">Clima Tropical de Zona Equatorial</td>
								<td align="center" rowspan="3">Semiárido</td>
								<td align="center">Brando</td>
								<td align="center">6</td>
								<td align="center">1.000 mm/ano</td>
								<td align="center">I, II, III, IV, V</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center">Itarema (CE) Área 2</td>
								<td align="center">Brando</td>
								<td align="center">6</td>
								<td align="center">1.000 mm/ano</td>
								<td align="center">I, II, III, IV, V</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center">Piranhas-Açu (RN) Área 3</td>
								<td align="center">Mediano</td>
								<td align="center">8</td>
								<td align="center">500 mm/ano</td>
								<td align="center">I, II, IV, V</td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center">Mamanguape (PB) Área 4</td>
								<td align="center">Clima Tropical do Nordeste Oriental</td>
								<td align="center">Úmido</td>
								<td align="center">Moderado</td>
								<td align="center">3</td>
								<td align="center">1.750 mm/ano</td>
								<td align="center">I, II, III, IV, V</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
					<table-wrap-foot>
						<fn id="TFN2">
							<p>Fonte: ¹<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic> (2016</xref>); ²<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic> (2016</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B44">INMET (2021</xref>) e <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">FUNCEME (2023a</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">2023b</xref>). Elaborado pelas autoras (2024).</p>
						</fn>
					</table-wrap-foot>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p>
				<fig id="f3">
					<label>Figura 3</label>
					<caption>
						<title>Espécies de mangue encontradas nas áreas em estudo</title>
					</caption>
					<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf3.png"/>
					<attrib>Espécies: I. <italic>Rhizophora mangle</italic>; II. <italic>Laguncularia racemosa</italic>; III. <italic>Avicennia germinans</italic>; IV. <italic>Avicennia schaueriana</italic>; V. <italic>Conocarpus erectus</italic></attrib>
					<attrib>Fonte: As autoras (2024).</attrib>
				</fig>
			</p>
			<p>
				<fig id="f4">
					<label>Figura 4</label>
					<caption>
						<title>Espacialização dos manguezais</title>
					</caption>
					<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf4.jpg"/>
					<attrib>Fonte: As autoras (2024).</attrib>
				</fig>
			</p>
			<p>A feição de apicum foi espacializada de forma bastante significativa no estuário do rio Piranhas-Açu (RN) em detrimento dos demais, com uma área de 4.858 ha com 674 polígonos, enquanto a menor extensão foi identificada no estuário do rio Mamanguape (PB) em uma área de aproximadamente 2,4 ha distribuídos em 6 polígonos.</p>
		</sec>
		<sec>
			<title>CORRELAÇÕES ENTRE A DISTRIBUIÇÃO ESPACIAL E VARIÁVEIS CLIMÁTICAS </title>
			<p>Os pares de variáveis apresentaram configurações especiais, indicando algum tipo de relação entre elas, sendo possível perceber a relação linear entre alguns pares (<xref ref-type="table" rid="t3">Tabela 2</xref>).</p>
			<p>
				<table-wrap id="t3">
					<label>Tabela 2</label>
					<caption>
						<title>Correlação entre as variáveis explicativas</title>
					</caption>
					<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
						<colgroup>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
							<col/>
						</colgroup>
						<thead>
							<tr>
								<th align="center"> </th>
								<th align="center">Norm. Precipit</th>
								<th align="center">Meses secos</th>
								<th align="center">Espécies</th>
								<th align="center">Frag.bm</th>
								<th align="center">Area.bm</th>
								<th align="center">Frag. apicum</th>
								<th align="center">Area. apicum</th>
							</tr>
						</thead>
						<tbody>
							<tr>
								<td align="center"><italic>Normais de Precipitação</italic></td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1,0000</td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center"><italic>Meses secos</italic></td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">-0,9991</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1,0000</td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center"><italic>Espécies</italic></td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#6495ED">0,6985</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">-0,7276</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1,0000</td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center"><italic>Frag.bm</italic></td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">-0,7491</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#6495ED">0,7759</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">-0,9973</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1,0000</td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center"><italic>Area.bm</italic></td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#6495ED">0,6984</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#FFDEAD">-0,6746</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#ADD8E6">0,0825</td>
								<td align="center">-0,1444</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1,0000</td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center"><italic>Frag.apicum</italic></td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">-0,7659</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">0,7970</td>
								<td align="center">-0,9929’’</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">0,9986</td>
								<td align="center">-0,1587</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1,0000</td>
								<td align="center"> </td>
							</tr>
							<tr>
								<td align="center"><italic>Area.apicum</italic></td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">-0,7615</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">0,7921</td>
								<td align="center">-0,9836’’</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">0,9903</td>
								<td align="center">-0,1193</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">0,9955</td>
								<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1,0000</td>
							</tr>
						</tbody>
					</table>
					<table-wrap-foot>
						<fn id="TFN3">
							<p>Legenda: Correlação <graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf10.png"/>; ‘ ’ : desconsiderados na análise; Frag.bm: Fragmentos dos bosques de mangue, Area.bm: Área dos bosques de mangue, Frag.bm: Fragmentos de apicum, Area.apicum: Área de apicum. </p>
						</fn>
						<fn id="TFN4">
							<p>Fonte: As autoras (2024).</p>
						</fn>
					</table-wrap-foot>
				</table-wrap>
			</p>
			<p>De acordo com a análise dos dados, existe uma correlação negativa muito forte (-0,99) entre os meses secos e as normais de precipitações médias anuais, sugerindo que uma menor precipitação está relacionada a um aumento no número de meses secos ao longo do ano, uma característica das precipitações no sertão nordestino, no qual as precipitações são baixas e concentradas em poucos meses durante o ano. </p>
			<p>Nesta perspectiva, a distribuição das espécies de mangue e a fragmentação do manguezal também apresentam uma correlação negativa muito forte (-0,99), onde uma maior fragmentação está associada a uma menor distribuição das espécies. </p>
			<p>A correlação entre a fragmentação dos bosques de mangue e apicum se mostrou muito forte (0,99), quanto maior a área de fragmentação da feição de bosque de mangue, maior a fragmentação e área do apicum.</p>
			<p>A fragmentação dos manguezais associadas com as normais climatológicas de precipitações médias anuais, resultou em uma correlação negativa (-0,74). O que pode indicar que uma menor quantidade de precipitações contribui para uma maior fragmentação dos manguezais e área do apicum.</p>
		</sec>
		<sec sec-type="discussion">
			<title>DISCUSSÃO</title>
			<p>Os dados das correlações apresentam uma relação linear entre a fragmentação dos bosques de mangue e as normais de precipitação, as quais são inversamente proporcionais aos meses secos durante o ano e à distribuição de espécies. Pode-se observar no estuário hipersalino Piranhas-Açu (RN) a fragmentação dos bosques de mangue em 1.379 polígonos e a normal climatológica com precipitações de aproximadamente 500 mm/ano contendo 8 meses secos, já nos estuários das áreas 1 (Timonha) e 2 (Itarema), onde a precipitação anual é de 1.000mm com 6 meses secos, foram mapeados 131 e 118 polígonos, respectivamente, enquanto o estuário do rio Mamanguape (PB) tem uma distribuição dos bosques de mangue em 24 polígonos e precipitações médias anuais de 1.750 mm/ano e 3 meses secos.</p>
			<p>Durante os trabalhos de campo foram identificadas quatro espécies de mangue verdadeiro (<italic>R. mangle, L. racemosa, A. Schaueriana, A. germinans)</italic> e uma espécie associada <italic>(C. erectus</italic>) nas áreas 1, 2 e 4, exceto no estuário Piranhas-Açu (RN) - Área 3 a qual não foi identificada a <italic>A. germinans</italic>, dado reforçado por <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">Souza, Silva e Costa (2023</xref>) que identificaram no referido estuário as quatro espécies citadas (<italic>R. mangle, L. racemosa, A. Schaueriana</italic> e <italic>C. erectus)</italic>. </p>
			<p>Observa-se em estuários do Nordeste brasileiro a ocorrência de <italic>A. germinans</italic> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B55">Maia; Coutinho, 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">Maia, 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Ximenes <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>) pela sua capacidade de sobrevivência em alta salinidade. Esta resposta foi encontrada por <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">Costa, Rocha e Cestaro (2014</xref>), onde a espécie se distribui desde a foz até a montante no estuário do rio Apodi-Mossoró, aproximadamente 40km a oeste do Piranhas-Açu, mas não foi encontrada no referido estuário durante os trabalhos de campo, necessitando de estudos mais específicos para compreender os elementos que levaram a ausência da sua distribuição na área 3, no Piranhas-Açu (RN).</p>
			<p>A fragmentação do manguezal apresentou uma relação negativa com a distribuição das espécies (-0,99), mas isto não indica que uma variável influencia a outra ou que existe uma relação de causa e efeito entre elas como <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B86">Zar (2009</xref>) e <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B76">Silva <italic>et al</italic>. (2022</xref>) destacam na aplicação de métodos estatísticos como a Correlação de Pearson. </p>
			<p>A distribuição de espécies de mangue pode ocorrer por diversos motivos, como resposta aos próprios limites fisiológicos das espécies, com variáveis relacionados à salinidade, temperatura do ar, temperatura da superfície do mar, precipitação, aridez, amplitude das marés, correntes oceânicas, a própria dispersão dos propágulos (sementes) através da hidrocoria e viviparidade, além das ações antrópicas (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B82">Tomlinson, 1986</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B71">Schaeffer-Novelli <italic>et al.</italic>, 1990</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">Osland <italic>et al</italic>, 2007</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B52">Lima; Galvani, 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli <italic>et al</italic>., 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Ximenes <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">Lacerda <italic>et al.</italic>, 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">Adame <italic>et al.</italic>, 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">Madeira <italic>et al</italic>., 2023</xref>).</p>
			<p>Esse conjunto de condicionantes ambientais resulta na formação dos manguezais. As características de topografia aplainada e clima semiárido das planícies costeiras do litoral setentrional do Rio Grande do Norte fazem com que durante as dinâmicas das marés, com amplitude variando de 0 a aproximadamente 2.8 m nas marés de sizígia, alcancem vastas áreas. Onde há o contato diário com as marés, ocorre a colonização da planície por mangue, pois nos locais mais elevados onde apenas as águas das marés de sizígia alcançam, a salinidade se torna um fator limitante para a presença da flora. </p>
			<p>Mesmo que as espécies desenvolvam mecanismos de eliminação de sais, há um limite para sua colonização (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B82">Tomlinson, 1986</xref>), resultando em extensas áreas de apicum, caracterizadas por feições de solo exposto ou com vegetações herbáceas halófitas (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f5">Figura 4</xref>). Ademais, a precipitação média anual é de aproximadamente 500 mm, com chuvas concentradas em quatro meses, e os rios da bacia hidrográfica do rio Piranhas-Açu apresentam um regime intermitente ou temporário, entre outros elementos que contribuem para a formação dessas paisagens (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">Diniz, 2013</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">Medeiros; Pinheiro, 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">Medeiros, 2020</xref>). </p>
			<p>
				<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">Medeiros e Pinheiro (2018</xref>) investigaram efeitos da insuficiência pluvial no estuário do Piranhas-Açu, no qual o clima semiárido da região é caracterizado por baixos índices pluviométricos e irregularidade de chuvas, com elevadas taxas de evapotranspiração potencial, resultando em um déficit anual de 1.829,8 mm. Combinado a outros fatores como a quantidade de barramentos na bacia hidrográfica (1.536 barramentos) e retirada da água para atividades econômicas, diminui consideravelmente a vazão dos rios para a zona estuarina, a fonte de água doce se torna quase “nula” (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">Godoy; Lacerda, 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B26">Diniz; Vasconcelos, 2016</xref>; Medeiros, 2020). Nos estuários do semiárido brasileiro percebe-se tendência a hipersalinidade sazonal (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Morais; Pinheiro, 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al.</italic>, 2021</xref>). Essas condições afetam a vegetação local das florestas de mangue e Caatinga no entorno do Piranhas-Açu, diminuindo 41,8% entre os anos de 2013 e 2015 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">Medeiros; Pinheiro, 2018</xref>).</p>
			<p>
				<fig id="f5">
					<label>Figura 4</label>
					<caption>
						<title>Planícies hipersalinas no estuário do rio Piranhas-Açu, município de Macau (RN)</title>
					</caption>
					<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf5.png"/>
					<attrib>Fonte: As autoras (2020).</attrib>
				</fig>
			</p>
			<p>Nos estuários de baixa energia, o acúmulo de sedimentos propiciam a formação de ilhas e bancos de areia (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Morais; Pinheiro, 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">Godoy; Lacerda, 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">2015</xref>). Esse processo estabelece condições favoráveis para a colonização por manguezais, como observado nas ilhas presentes nos estuários dos rios Timonha, Aracatimirim e Piranhas-Açu (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Morais; Pinheiro, 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">Godoy; Lacerda, 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B34">Godoy, 2015</xref>).</p>
			<p>Na área 1 entre os estuários do rio Timonha e Ubatuba, a Ilha Grande apresenta quase 2.000 ha, sendo uma das maiores ilhas estuarinas do Nordeste (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Choi-Lima, 2017</xref>), contendo outras duas, a ilha do Coronel e ilha dos Preás, com aproximadamente 700ha e 855ha, respectivamente. Outros 11 polígonos menores de bosques de mangue foram mapeados em ilhas no curso do rio Timonha com áreas entre 54 e 0,5 ha. </p>
			<p>No Aracatimirim, o tamanho dos polígonos de bosque de mangue mapeados em ilhas é menor, variando entre 9 e 0,03 ha dentre 14 polígonos. No Piranhas-Açu a maior ilha tem tamanho de 221ha (a oeste de Macau, se assemelha a um coração invertido, conhecida por Ilha Maracanã), os polígonos do bosque de mangue em ilhas somam-se em 145 variando entre 78 e 0,001ha. E, no Mamanguape, foram mapeadas oito ilhas contendo oito polígonos de bosques de mangue, variando entre 78 e 0,32 ha.</p>
			<p>Como exemplo de expansão dos manguezais, ao comparar os dados fornecidos pelo <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B56">MapBiomas (2022</xref>) para o ano de 1985 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B79">Souza Júnior <italic>et al</italic>., 2020</xref>), em que os bosques de mangue no estuário do rio Aracatimirim compreendiam uma área de 24,57 ha e de acordo com os dados desta pesquisa, a área mapeada em 2021 foi de 324 ha, resultando no aumento de 1,218% das áreas de manguezal. Além da intrusão salina e baixa vazão fluvial, outros fatores de condições globais como o aumento do nível do mar e mudanças climáticas propiciam sua expansão (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">Godoy; Lacerda, 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>).</p>
			<p>Estudos de <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Albuquerque <italic>et al</italic>. (2014a</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B5">Albuquerque (2015</xref>) e <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">Medeiros (2020</xref>) apontam a correlação do desenvolvimento e extensão dos apicuns com variáveis climáticas, como o déficit hídrico, a topografia aplainada, a hidrografia de rios intermitentes, a dinâmica costeira e a oscilação das marés. Esses ambientes extremos e hipersalinos permitem o desenvolvimento de apenas algumas espécies herbáceas, que são adaptadas a condições de alta salinidade, pelos fatores citados anteriormente e pela sua topografia ser um pouco mais elevada, a qual apenas as marés mais altas, preamares de sizígia chegam nesses locais, obtendo a evaporação e consequentemente um acúmulo de sais (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli <italic>et al</italic>., 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">ICMBio, 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">Medeiros, 2020</xref>).</p>
			<p>O apicum é de grande importância, pois, com a tendência de elevação do nível do mar, os bosques de mangue migrarão para as áreas que hoje são apicuns. Pesquisas mostram que áreas atualmente ocupadas por apicuns, foram, no passado, ocupadas por bosques de mangue, indicando que ao longo do tempo geológico, essa dinâmica ocorre periodicamente (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">Albuquerque <italic>et al</italic>., 2014b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B73">Schaeffer-Novelli <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">Barbosa <italic>et al</italic>., 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>).</p>
			<p>Em ordem decrescente, o estuário do Piranhas-Açu apresenta uma fragmentação de 674 polígonos em uma área de 4.858 ha com normais de precipitação de 500mm/ano e 8 meses secos, o Timonha 96 polígonos com área 938ha com índices pluviométricos anuais de 1008 e 6 meses secos, Itarema (CE) com 60 polígonos em uma área de 146 ha que tem precipitações de 1009 mm/ano e 6 meses secos e o estuário do rio Mamanguape (PB) seis polígonos mapeados em uma área de 2,4 ha com precipitações anuais de 1.875mm e 3 meses secos.</p>
			<p>A fragmentação nos bosques de mangue no semiárido é bastante elevada, 49% dos fragmentos são inferiores a 1ha no Timonha, 71% na área 2, e 82% da fragmentação menor que 1ha no Piranhas-Açu. Enquanto na área 4 apenas 2% dos fragmentos tem área inferior a 1ha. Dos fragmentos dos apicuns, no Timonha 51%, Itarema 63%, Piranhas-Açu 69%, Mamanguape 100% são polígonos de apicum inferiores a 1ha.</p>
			<p>Um dos impactos negativos causados decorrentes da fragmentação consiste na perda da conectividade da paisagem, alterando a capacidade das espécies em habitar o ecossistema (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">Jaramillo <italic>et al</italic>., 2023</xref>). As modificações nos fragmentos concentram-se nas bordas, chamado de efeito de borda (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">Souza, <italic>et al</italic>., 2023</xref>), em áreas mais continentais, no ecótono do apicum para o continente, e podem ocorrer mais veemente em decorrência das atividades antrópicas como o desmatamento e mudanças no uso do solo (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">Bryan-Brown <italic>et al</italic>., 2020</xref>).</p>
			<p>A ocupação do manguezal nas áreas em estudo por tanques de aquicultura/carcinicultura e salinas solares é evidente. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">Costa <italic>et al</italic> (2022</xref>) estudaram serviços ecossistêmicos entre as diferentes unidades de paisagem no sistema estuarino Galinhos-Guamaré no litoral semiárido do Rio Grande do Norte, sendo possível comparar a prestação de serviços em estuário/canais de maré, bosque de mangue, apicum, planícies de maré, salinas solares e carcinicultura. Como resultado, foi identificado que as áreas de bosque de mangue e apicum ofertam respectivamente 3,7 e 2,7 vezes mais serviços ecossistêmicos do que tanques de carcinicultura.</p>
			<p>Nas áreas 1 e 3 há ocupação das planícies por salinas solares, e em todas as áreas há fazendas de camarão, a carcinicultura. Na área 1 devido ao clima, as salinas funcionam apenas durante o período dos meses secos e é pouco rentável (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">Araújo, 2013</xref>). Já no estado do Rio Grande do Norte, a presença de salinas solares é evidente nos estuários do litoral setentrional majoritariamente nas áreas que antes eram manguezais (apicum e bosques de mangue), chegando a 95% da produção nacional de sal marinho, devido as condicionantes ambientais locais. No município de Macau, a Salinor tem uma área de 4.540,53 ha de tanques evaporadores e cristalizadores produz aproximadamente 45% de todo sal marinho brasileiro (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19">Costa <italic>et al</italic>., 2013</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">Diniz, 2013</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B78">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2018</xref>). Já a produção de camarão nos estados do Ceará e Rio Grande do Norte obteve em 2021, segundo a Associação Brasileira de Criadores de Camarão (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">ABCC, 2022</xref>) 55,6 e 26 t, respectivamente, e ocupam o 1º e o 2º lugar no ranking nacional, onde o Ceará produziu 47,1% de todo camarão nacional e o Rio Grande do Norte 21,6%. </p>
			<p>A aquicultura e as salinas solares no município de Chaval-CE, na área 1, compreendem 323 ha, de acordo com a Secretaria Estadual de Meio Ambiente Do Ceará (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Sema, 2022</xref>). Já no estuário do rio Piranhas-Açu a área ocupada é bastante expressiva, com 12.000 ha de tanques de salinas solares e 2.100 ha de tanques de carcinicultura, somando, tem-se um total de 14.100 ha (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B70">Saldanha, 2020</xref>). A área ocupada por estes dois tipos de empreendimentos é 43 vezes maior no Piranhas-Açu (área 3) do que no Timonha (área 1). Em Itarema, área 2, a aquicultura/carcinicultura ocupa uma área de 555 ha (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Sema, 2022</xref>), enquanto a ocupação no Mamanguape (área 4) pela carcinicultura é de 82 ha (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">ICMBio, 2014</xref>). </p>
			<p><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">Bryan-Brown <italic>et al</italic> (2020</xref>) apontam tendências globais de fragmentação dos manguezais como a conversão para aquicultura, agricultura e expansão urbana, que estão associadas com o desmatamento. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">Gilani <italic>et al</italic> (2021</xref>) e <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B37">Grantham <italic>et al</italic> (2020</xref>) destacam também outros fatores como a construção de estradas, visualizada nas áreas 2, 3 e 4, respectivamente, em Porto dos Barcos (Itarema/CE), Piranhas-Açu (RN) e Mamanguape (PB). Consequentemente essas modificações causam desequilíbrios ambientais e impactos ecológicos que afetam as funções ecossistêmicas (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B65">Polidoro <italic>et al</italic>., 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">ICMBio, 2018</xref>), como a diminuição de espécies de peixes estuarinos (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B83">Tran; Fischer, 2017</xref>), liberação de emissões de carbono, perda da biodiversidade e qualidade da água (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">Atwood <italic>et al</italic>., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">Hagger; <italic>et al</italic>., 2022</xref>).</p>
			<p><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18">Corte <italic>et al.</italic> (2021</xref>) fornecem evidências de que mesmo pequenos os fragmentos dos manguezais melhoram a biodiversidade e as funções ecossistêmicas, reconhecendo sua importância como integração do ambiente. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B51">Li <italic>et al</italic>. (2013</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">Estoque <italic>et al</italic> (2018</xref>) e <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">Gilani <italic>et al</italic> (2021</xref>) destacam o estabelecimento de reservas naturais de manguezais como a forma mais eficaz de proteger e expandir os manguezais; a implementação de monitoramento eficaz; a instauração de programas e projetos educacionais; para que sejam perpetuados a estrutura e funcionamento dos ecossistemas para propiciar a oferta de serviços ecossistêmicos por estes ambientes. No Brasil, mesmo com um avançado arcabouço legislativo, a falta de fiscalização e monitoramento nos manguezais, sobretudo os que não estão localizados em unidades de conservação, se tornam um fator limitante à conservação deste ecossistema (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">Ferreira; Lacerda <italic>et al.,</italic> 2016</xref>).</p>
			<p>Segundo o Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">ICMBIO, 2018</xref>, p. 59) a presença de Unidades de Conservação (UCs) no Brasil circunscritas no ecossistema manguezal é de 120 unidades dentre as 2.071 UC existentes, correspondendo a uma área de 12.114 km², que representa 87% do ecossistema em todo o Brasil. Ressalta-se que nacionalmente os manguezais são resguardados pela lei nº 12.651/2012, que os delimitam em Área de Preservação Permanente (APP) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">Brasil, 2012</xref>).</p>
			<p>O estabelecimento de unidades de conservação exige uma série de medidas de planejamento e monitoramento para analisar e regulamentar a utilização dos recursos das áreas protegidas, visando o desenvolvimento sustentável nos ecossistemas englobados nas UCs de Uso Sustentável, e de preservação dos ambientes nas UCs de Proteção Integral (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">Brasil, 2000</xref>). Neste ponto, as três UCs envolvidas neste estudo fazem parte da categoria de Uso Sustentável. A área 1 (estuário do rio Timonha, no semiárido brando) está localizada na APA Delta do Parnaíba e a área 4 apresenta duas UCs, a ARIE Manguezais da Foz do Rio Mamanguape e a APA da Barra do Rio Mamanguape. O que contribui para um planejamento e controle dos usos dos recursos naturais das áreas (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B63">Paludo; Klonowsky, 1999</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">ICMBio, 2014</xref>).</p>
		</sec>
		<sec sec-type="conclusions">
			<title>CONSIDERAÇÕES FINAIS</title>
			<p>Os dados apresentam uma complexa interação entre a distribuição dos manguezais e variáveis ambientais, como os padrões climáticos regionais. As análises indicam que a fragmentação dos manguezais é inversamente proporcional à precipitação média anual, sugerindo que o padrão climático com baixas precipitações e maior número de meses secos podem levar a uma maior divisão dos manguezais, além das extensas áreas de apicum, como observado no estuário do rio Piranhas-Açu (RN), onde a precipitação média anual é de aproximadamente 500 mm e esta área tem um período de 8 meses secos.</p>
			<p>Além disso, a correlação estatística entre a fragmentação e a distribuição das espécies, embora significativa, não implica causalidade, o que ressalta a necessidade de uma compreensão mais profunda dos mecanismos subjacentes que regem essas relações ecológicas, pois a presença e distribuição das espécies de mangue são influenciadas por uma série de fatores, que vão dos limites fisiológicos das espécies a elementos antrópicos, como mudanças no uso do solo.</p>
			<p>A expansão dos manguezais em áreas anteriormente não ocupadas e os impactos negativos causados pela fragmentação, como a perda de conectividade e os efeitos de borda, destacam a importância de medidas de conservação e manejo adequado desses ecossistemas. O estabelecimento, monitoramento e a manutenção de unidades de conservação contribuem diretamente para a gestão sustentável dos manguezais. Assim, é essencial um esforço contínuo para promover a conservação efetiva desses importantes ecossistemas costeiros.</p>
		</sec>
	</body>
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		<fn-group>
			<fn fn-type="financial-disclosure" id="fn1">
				<label>FINANCIAMENTO</label>
				<p> As autoras agradecem ao apoio da Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Código de Financiamento 001, (processo nº. 88887.513668/2020-00) pela concessão de bolsa durante o período de doutoramento (Ana Caroline Damasceno Souza de Sá), ao programa CAPES/PRINT (Lidriana Pinheiro), ao CNPQ (316941/2021) (Lidriana Pinheiro) e ao Programa de Pós-graduação em Geografia (ProPGeo) da Universidade Estadual do Ceará (UECE).</p>
			</fn>
		</fn-group>
	</back>
	<!--<sub-article article-type="translation" id="s1" xml:lang="en">
		<front-stub>
			<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.14393/SN-v37-2025-72756x</article-id>
			<article-categories>
				<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
					<subject>Papers</subject>
				</subj-group>
			</article-categories>
			<title-group>
				<article-title>The Influence of Environmental Variables on the Distribution of Mangroves in Northeast Brazil</article-title>
			</title-group>
			<contrib-group>
				<contrib contrib-type="author">
					<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0003-1037-5685</contrib-id>
					<name>
						<surname>Sá</surname>
						<given-names>Ana Caroline Damasceno Souza de</given-names>
					</name>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/conceptualization/">conceptualization</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/data-curation/">data curation</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/formal-analysis/">formal analysis</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/investigation/">investigation</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/methodology/">methodology</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-original-draft/">writing - original draft</role>
					<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref>
				</contrib>
				<contrib contrib-type="author">
					<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0003-0863-0771</contrib-id>
					<name>
						<surname>Pinheiro</surname>
						<given-names>Lidriana</given-names>
					</name>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/conceptualization/">conceptualization</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/methodology/">methodology</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/supervision/">supervision</role>
					<role content-type="http://credit.niso.org/contributor-roles/writing-original-draft/">writing - original draft</role>
					<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref>
				</contrib>
			</contrib-group>
			<aff id="aff3">
				<label>1</label>
				<institution content-type="original"> Universidade Estadual do Ceará - UECE, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil. carolsouza.geo@gmail.com</institution>
				<institution content-type="orgname">Universidade Estadual do Ceará - UECE</institution>
				<addr-line>
					<city>Fortaleza</city>
					<state>CE</state>
				</addr-line>
				<country country="BR">Brasil</country>
				<email>carolsouza.geo@gmail.com</email>
			</aff>
			<aff id="aff4">
				<label>2</label>
				<institution content-type="original"> Universidade Federal do Ceará - UFC, Fortaleza, CE, Brasil. lidriana@ufc.br</institution>
				<institution content-type="orgname">Universidade Federal do Ceará - UFC</institution>
				<addr-line>
					<city>Fortaleza</city>
					<state>CE</state>
				</addr-line>
				<country country="BR">Brasil</country>
				<email>lidriana@ufc.br</email>
			</aff>
			<abstract>
				<title>Abstract</title>
				<p>This research aims to spatialize mangroves and correlate them with environmental variables, exploring potential variation in the distribution of mangrove and salt flat forests in relation to areas with different rainfall patterns and drought periods within the same Brazilian region. CBERS-4A satellite images and manual vectorization of mangrove and apicum forest polygons in QGIS v. 3.10.14 software were used, as well as fieldwork. Pearson's correlation analysis, carried out using RStudio software, considered variables such as rainfall, dry months, mangrove species, fragmentation, and area size. The results indicate that variations in rainfall and the number of dry months have a strong influence on the distribution of mangroves. For example, in the Piranhas-Açu hypersaline estuary (RN), a large fragmentation of mangrove forests was observed, with 1.379 polygons mapped in an area of 2.396 ha, receiving 500 mm of annual rainfall and having 8 dry months. In the Timonha (CE) and Itarema (CE) estuaries, with 1000 mm of rain and 6 dry months, 131 and 118 polygons were identified, respectively, on 2482 and 1093 ha. In contrast, the Mamanguape River estuary (PB), with the highest annual rainfall of 1750 mm and only 3 dry months, has a distribution of 4256 ha in 24 polygons. As for the salt flats, the Piranhas-Açu (RN) has a fragmentation of 674 polygons in an area of 4858 ha and the Mamanguape River estuary (PB) has six polygons mapped in an area of 2.4 ha. The research highlights the impacts of climatic variables on the distribution of mangroves, anthropogenic interference in land use due to economic activities and the negative effects of fragmentation, underscoring the importance of conservation and proper management of these vital ecosystems.</p>
			</abstract>
			<kwd-group xml:lang="en">
				<title>Keywords:</title>
				<kwd>Mangrove forests</kwd>
				<kwd>Salt flats</kwd>
				<kwd>Brazilian semi-arid coast Mangrove biogeography</kwd>
			</kwd-group>
		</front-stub>
		<body>
			<sec sec-type="intro">
				<title>INTRODUCTION</title>
				<p>Mangroves are ecosystems located on the continental and marine interface, with daily dynamics due to tidal action, conditioning the inherent characteristics of the species that develop in this brackish environment with high concentrations of organic matter (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B82">Tomlinson, 1986</xref>).</p>
				<p>According to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli, Vale and Cintrón (2015</xref>), mangroves have features characterized as a continuum: <italic>lavado</italic> (mudflats / tidal flats), <italic>mangue</italic> (mangrove forest) and <italic>apicum</italic> (salt flats). The first is a bank of muddy or sandy sediment, without vegetation, which is constantly flooded by the tides. The mangrove forest is typified by woody vegetation that colonizes the extensive halomorphic substrates. <italic>Apicum</italic>, also known as hypersaline plains or salt marshes, are areas of supramare, the upper tidal reach of the water from an estuary or ocean, and can coincide with the upper limit of mangrove dominance in the transition to mainland areas.</p>
				<p>Through their ecological functions, these environments generate various ecosystem services for society (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B22">Costanza <italic>et al</italic>., 1997</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">Barbier <italic>et al</italic>., 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B84">Vo <italic>et al</italic>., 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B59">Meireles, 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B50">Lee <italic>et al</italic>., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">Duke, 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B61">Mukherjee <italic>et al</italic>., 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">Costa <italic>et al</italic>., 2022</xref>), with detrimental human pressures that lead to environmental degradation (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">Lacerda <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>).</p>
				<p>The changes that have occurred on the semi-arid coast can be listed as the reduction in precipitation rates and consequent hypersalinity in estuaries; a decrease in land-ocean flows; coastal erosion; rising sea levels; global warming and extreme weather events; eutrophication and loss of biodiversity due to human activities (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>). </p>
				<p>These changes have significant consequences for the provision of ecosystem services, such as food security, requiring studies to analyze the potential impact of changes in coastal dynamics on the structure and functioning of coastal and marine ecosystems (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>). It is important to understand the structure and functioning of mangroves to provide knowledge and generate strategic planning and conservation actions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">ICMBio, 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B64">Pinheiro <italic>et al</italic>., 2023</xref>).</p>
				<p>Considering mangroves in different climatic contexts, i.e. in areas with different rainfall patterns and periods of drought within the same Brazilian region, the research's main guiding question is: is there a difference in the distribution of mangrove forest and <italic>apicum</italic> features located in environments with climatic differences in the Northeast region of Brazil? Therefore, this research aims to spatialize mangroves and correlate them with environmental factors, to verify whether there is variation in the distribution of mangrove and apicum forest architecture in different climatic conditions.</p>
			</sec>
			<sec sec-type="methods">
				<title>METHODOLOGY</title>
				<sec>
					<title>Study area</title>
					<p>The study area comprises four areas, the mangroves of the Timonha River (CE) - Area 1, Itarema (CE) - Area 2, Piranhas-Açu (RN) - Area 3, and Mamanguape (PB) - Area 4 (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f6">Figure 1</xref>).</p>
					<p>
						<fig id="f6">
							<label>Figure 1</label>
							<caption>
								<title>Map of the mangroves study locations</title>
							</caption>
							<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf6.jpg"/>
							<attrib>Source: <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic> (2016</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">IBGE (2021</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B42">ICMBIo (2022</xref>). Elaborated by the authors (2024).</attrib>
						</fig>
					</p>
					<p>The Northeast Coast study area is characterized by two distinct climatic types: the Equatorial Zone Tropical Climate (Brazilian Semi-Arid Coast) and the Humid Tropical (Reef Coast) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>). The Timonha River estuary (area 1) is located in the semi-arid municipalities of Chaval and Barroquinha, in the west of the state of Ceará, in the Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) Delta do Parnaíba (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">Brasil, 1996</xref>). This is a Brazilian category of sustainable use conservation unit that protects areas with relevant environmental attributes, while allowing regulated human activities compatible with ecological preservation. </p>
					<p>Also on the semi-arid coast, the estuarine-lagoon systems of Porto dos Barcos and the Aracatimirim river, in the municipality of Itarema/Ceará (area 2), were studied. In the state of Rio Grande do Norte, the Piranhas-Açu river estuary is located between the municipalities of Porto do Mangue and Macau (area 3), a region popularly known as the Costa Branca Pole, due to the high production of sea salt (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">Diniz <italic>et al</italic>., 2020</xref>). </p>
					<p>The Mamanguape River estuary is located in the state of Paraíba, in the municipalities of Marcação and Rio Tinto (area 4), and is part of two conservation units. The Área de Relevante Interesse Ecológico (ARIE) Manguezais da Foz do Rio Mamanguape, is a protected natural area dedicated to preserving ecosystems while balancing environmental conservation with human activities (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B12">Brasil, 1985</xref>). Its boundaries overlapped by the Área de Proteção Ambiental (APA) da Barra do Rio Mamanguape,delimited area that aim to protect biological diversity and organize land use to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources(<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">Brasil, 1993</xref>).</p>
				</sec>
				<sec>
					<title>Methodological procedures</title>
					<p>The mangrove feature “mangrove forest” was identified based on the structure characterized by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli, Vale and Cintrón (2015</xref>). For spatialization, the Visual Image Interpretation methodology was applied (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">Jensen, 2000</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">Florenzano, 2011</xref>), drawing up an interpretation key for visual analysis and vectorization of the polygons (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f7">Figure 2</xref>), on a scale of 1:10,000, with the aid of the QGIS v. 3.10.14 software (Essen/GNU - General Public License©) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B66">QGIS TEAM, 2021</xref>). </p>
					<p>The criteria used by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B80">Souza (2022</xref>) and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B69">Sá (2024</xref>) were taken into account when mapping the &quot;Mangrove Forest&quot; feature, considering its dark green tone and color, rough texture, and irregular shape. The mapped data was then validated in the field with the aid of aerial images taken by a DJI Mavic Air 2 drone.</p>
					<p>
						<fig id="f7">
							<label>Figure 2</label>
							<caption>
								<title>Mangrove interpretation key</title>
							</caption>
							<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf7.jpg"/>
							<attrib>Source: <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">INPE (2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">2022</xref>). Elaborated by the authors (2024).</attrib>
						</fig>
					</p>
					<p>For spatialization of the mangrove forests of the Timonha River (Ceará, BR), the close proximity to the Ubatuba River with the mixing of the rivers' waters prevents precise delimitation of the relative influence of each river, thus a buffer on the left bank was defined as a criterion based on current legislation, Law Nº 12.651/2012 (New Forest Code), which delimits Áreas de Preservação Permanente (APP), protected areas to preserve natural resources, biodiversity and guarantee environmental stability and human well-being, according to the course of the river (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">Brasil, 2012</xref>). </p>
					<p>Three strips were considered along the estuary, with the mouth being the place with the largest buffer area, delimiting 500m, as the width of the river is over 600m, then, where the width of the estuary is between 600 and 200m, the left bank was 200m and finally, where the width was between 200 and 50m, the bank was delimited at 100m.</p>
					<p>To analyze the environmental variables (<xref ref-type="table" rid="t4">Chart 1</xref>) for possible relationships between them, Pearson's correlation was used, according to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B76">Silva <italic>et al</italic>. (2022</xref>):</p>
					<p>
						<table-wrap id="t4">
							<label>Chart 1</label>
							<caption>
								<title>Environmental variables in the study area</title>
							</caption>
							<table>
								<colgroup>
									<col/>
									<col/>
									<col/>
								</colgroup>
								<thead>
									<tr>
										<th align="center">VARIABLE</th>
										<th align="center">SOURCE</th>
										<th align="center">CRITERION</th>
									</tr>
								</thead>
								<tbody>
									<tr>
										<td align="center">Average annual rainfall</td>
										<td align="center" rowspan="2">
											<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">Bagnouls and Gaussen (1953</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B43">INMET (2009</xref>) and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al.</italic> (2016</xref>)</td>
										<td align="center">Climate normals</td>
									</tr>
									<tr>
										<td align="center">Number of dry months in the year</td>
										<td align="center">Total Precipitation (P) in mm is equal to or less than twice the Air Temperature (T) in Degrees Celsius. (Dry month = P≤ 2.T)</td>
									</tr>
									<tr>
										<td align="center">Mangrove species</td>
										<td align="center">Field activities</td>
										<td align="center">Identification of flora</td>
									</tr>
									<tr>
										<td align="center">Fragments (spatialization of mapped polygon features)</td>
										<td align="center" rowspan="2">Satellite images</td>
										<td align="center" rowspan="2">Polygons mapped according to <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli, Vale and Cintrón (2015</xref>)</td>
									</tr>
									<tr>
										<td align="center">Area size (ha)</td>
									</tr>
								</tbody>
							</table>
							<table-wrap-foot>
								<fn id="TFN5">
									<p>Source: The authors (2024).</p>
								</fn>
							</table-wrap-foot>
						</table-wrap>
					</p>
					<p>R software (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B67">R CORE TEAM, 2022</xref>) and RStudio (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B68">R STUDIO TEAM, 2022</xref>), with Rtools 4.3.3 (5863-5818) were used to analyze the data.</p>
				</sec>
			</sec>
			<sec>
				<title>SPATIALIZATION OF MANGROVES</title>
				<p>In the semi-arid Northeast, located in the tropical Equatorial Zone climate (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>), the estuary with the lowest rates is the Piranhas-Açu complex (RN) (area 3), with normal average annual rainfall of around 500 mm/year and eight dry months (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">INMET, 2021</xref>). The areas of the Timonha River and Itarema (CE) have rainfall of 1000 mm/year and six dry months (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">FUNCEME, 2023a</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">2023b</xref>). In the tropical climate of the Eastern Northeast, with a moderate humid subdomain and three dry months, the Mamanguape River area has an Average Annual Precipitation of 1750 mm (<xref ref-type="table" rid="t1">Table 1</xref>) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>).</p>
				<p>Four species of true mangrove were recorded in areas 1, 2 and 4 (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f8">Figure 3</xref>): I) <italic>Rhizophora mangle</italic> Linnaeus (1753); II. <italic>Laguncularia racemosa</italic> C. F. Gaert (1807); III. <italic>Avicennia germinans</italic> Linnaeus (1764); IV. <italic>Avicennia schaueriana</italic> Stapf &amp; Leechm (1939). In area 3, three species of true mangrove were identified: <italic>R. mangle</italic>, <italic>L. racemosa</italic> and <italic>A. schaueriana</italic>. In the four areas under study, one species associated with the mangrove was identified, <italic>Conocarpus erectus</italic> Linnaeus (1753), with five and four species accounted for, as shown in <xref ref-type="table" rid="t5">Table 1</xref>.</p>
				<p>Area 4 in Mamanguape has the largest area of mangrove forest, totaling 4256 hectares spread over 24 polygons (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f9">Figure 4</xref>). The Timonha River (area 1) mangrove forest covers an area of 2,482 hectares, fragmented into 131 polygons. The Piranhas-Açu (area 3) mangrove forest is the most fragmented, with 1379 polygons and an area of 2396 hectares. The smallest area is found in Itarema (area 2), with 1093 hectares spread over 118 fragments.</p>
				<p>
					<table-wrap id="t5">
						<label>Table 1</label>
						<caption>
							<title>Environmental characteristics of the mangroves studied</title>
						</caption>
						<table>
							<colgroup>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
							</colgroup>
							<thead>
								<tr>
									<th align="center">MANGROVE</th>
									<th align="center">CLIMATE¹</th>
									<th align="center">SUB- DOMAIN</th>
									<th align="center">CLIMATIC VARIETIES</th>
									<th align="center">DRY MONTHS</th>
									<th align="center">RAINFALL²</th>
									<th align="center">MANGROVE FOREST</th>
								</tr>
							</thead>
							<tbody>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Timonha (CE) Area 1</td>
									<td align="center" rowspan="3">Tropical Equatorial Zone Climate</td>
									<td align="center" rowspan="3">Semiarid</td>
									<td align="center">Mild</td>
									<td align="center">6</td>
									<td align="center">1000 mm/year</td>
									<td align="center">I, II, III, IV, V</td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Itarema (CE) Area 2</td>
									<td align="center">Mild</td>
									<td align="center">6</td>
									<td align="center">1000 mm/year</td>
									<td align="center">I, II, III, IV, V</td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Piranhas-Açu (RN) Area 3</td>
									<td align="center">Medium</td>
									<td align="center">8</td>
									<td align="center">500 mm/year</td>
									<td align="center">I, II, IV, V</td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Mamanguape (PB) Area 4</td>
									<td align="center">Tropical Climate of the Eastern Northeast</td>
									<td align="center">Humid</td>
									<td align="center">Moderate</td>
									<td align="center">3</td>
									<td align="center">1750 mm/year</td>
									<td align="center">I, II, III, IV, V</td>
								</tr>
							</tbody>
						</table>
						<table-wrap-foot>
							<fn id="TFN6">
								<p>Fonte: ¹<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic> (2016</xref>); ²<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">Diniz <italic>et al</italic> (2016</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">INMET (2021</xref>) and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">FUNCEME (2023a</xref>, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">2023b</xref>). Elaborated by the authors (2024).</p>
							</fn>
						</table-wrap-foot>
					</table-wrap>
				</p>
				<p>
					<fig id="f8">
						<label>Figure 3</label>
						<caption>
							<title>Mangrove species in the study areas</title>
						</caption>
						<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf8.png"/>
						<attrib>Species: I. <italic>Rhizophora mangle</italic>; II. <italic>Laguncularia racemosa</italic>; III. <italic>Avicennia germinans</italic>; IV. <italic>Avicennia schaueriana</italic>; V<italic>. Conocarpus erectus.</italic></attrib>
						<attrib>Source: The authors (2024).</attrib>
					</fig>
				</p>
				<p>
					<fig id="f9">
						<label>Figure 4</label>
						<caption>
							<title>Spatialization of mangroves</title>
						</caption>
						<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf9.jpg"/>
						<attrib>Source: The authors (2024).</attrib>
					</fig>
				</p>
				<p>The apicum feature was spatialized quite significantly in the Piranhas-Açu river estuary (RN) to the detriment of the others, with an area of 4.858 ha with 674 polygons, while the smallest extension was identified in the Mamanguape River estuary (PB) in an area of approximately 2.4 ha distributed in 6 polygons.</p>
			</sec>
			<sec>
				<title>CORRELATIONS BETWEEN SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND CLIMATIC VARIABLES</title>
				<p>The pairs of variables showed special configurations, indicating some kind of relationship between them, and it was possible to see a linear relationship between some pairs (<xref ref-type="table" rid="t6">Table 2</xref>).</p>
				<p>
					<table-wrap id="t6">
						<label>Table 2</label>
						<caption>
							<title>Correlation between explanatory variables</title>
						</caption>
						<table>
							<colgroup>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
								<col/>
							</colgroup>
							<tbody>
								<tr>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center">Precipit. Norm.</td>
									<td align="center">Dry months</td>
									<td align="center">Species</td>
									<td align="center">Frag.mf</td>
									<td align="center">Area.mf</td>
									<td align="center">Frag. apicum</td>
									<td align="center">Area. apicum</td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Precipitation Normals</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1.0000</td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Dry months</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">-0.9991</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1.0000</td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Species</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#6495ED">0.6985</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">-0.7276</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1.0000</td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Frag.mf</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">-0.7491</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#6495ED">0.7759</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">-0.9973</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1.0000</td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Area.mf</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#6495ED">0.6984</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#FFDEAD">-0.6746</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#ADD8E6">0.0825</td>
									<td align="center">-0.1444</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1.0000</td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Frag.apicum</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">-0.7659</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">0.7970</td>
									<td align="center">-0.9929”</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">0.9986</td>
									<td align="center">-0.1587</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1.0000</td>
									<td align="center"> </td>
								</tr>
								<tr>
									<td align="center">Area.apicum</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">-0.7615</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#F4A460">0.7921</td>
									<td align="center">-0.9836”</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">0.9903</td>
									<td align="center">-0.1193</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#D2691E">0.9955</td>
									<td align="center" style="background-color:#4682B4">1.0000</td>
								</tr>
							</tbody>
						</table>
						<table-wrap-foot>
							<fn id="TFN7">
								<p>Legend: Correlation <graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf11.png"/>; ‘ ’ : disregarded in the analysis; Frag.mf: Mangrove forest fragments; Area.mf: Mangrove forest area; Frag.mf: Apicum fragments; Area.apicum: Apicum area.</p>
							</fn>
							<fn id="TFN8">
								<p>Source: The authors (2024).</p>
							</fn>
						</table-wrap-foot>
					</table-wrap>
				</p>
				<p>A strong negative correlation (-0.99) was found between dry months and average annual rainfall, suggesting that lower rainfall is related to an increase in the number of dry months throughout the year. In the northeastern hinterland, rainfall is low and concentrated in a few months during the year.</p>
				<p>From this perspective, the distribution of mangrove species and mangrove fragmentation also show a very strong negative correlation (-0.99), where greater fragmentation is associated with a lower distribution of species. </p>
				<p>The correlation between the fragmentation of the mangrove forests and the salt flats was very strong (0.99): the greater the area of fragmentation of the mangrove forest feature, the greater the fragmentation and area of the apicum.</p>
				<p>The fragmentation of the mangroves associated with the climatological norms for average annual rainfall resulted in a negative correlation (-0.74). This may indicate that less rainfall contributes to greater fragmentation of the mangroves and apicum area.</p>
			</sec>
			<sec sec-type="discussion">
				<title>DISCUSSION</title>
				<p>The correlation data shows a linear relationship between the fragmentation of mangrove forests and rainfall climate normals, which are inversely proportional to the dry months during the year and the distribution of species. In the Piranhas-Açu (RN) hypersaline estuary, the fragmentation of mangrove forests into 1379 polygons and the climatological normal with rainfall of approximately 500 mm/year with 8 dry months can be observed. In the estuaries of areas 1 (Timonha) and 2 (Itarema), where annual rainfall is 1000mm with 6 dry months, 131 and 118 polygons were mapped, respectively. The Mamanguape River estuary (PB) has a distribution of mangrove forests among 24 polygons with an average annual rainfall of 1750 mm/year and 3 dry months.</p>
				<p>During the fieldwork, four species of true mangrove were identified (<italic>R. mangle, L. racemosa, A. Schaueriana, A. germinans)</italic> and an associated species <italic>(C. erectus</italic>) in areas 1, 2 and 4. In the Piranhas-Açu estuary (RN) - Area 3, A. germinans was not identified; notably, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">Souza, Silva and Costa (2023</xref>), identified all the four species mentioned above in the estuary (<italic>R. mangle, L. racemosa, A. Schaueriana</italic> and <italic>C. erectus)</italic>.</p>
				<p>The occurrence of <italic>A. germinans</italic> has been observed in estuaries in north-eastern Brazil (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B55">Maia; Coutinho, 2012</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">Maia, 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Ximenes <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>) for its ability to survive in high salinity. This relationship to high salinity was found by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">Costa, Rocha and Cestaro (2014</xref>), where the species is distributed from the mouth to upstream in the Apodi-Mossoró river estuary, approximately 40km west of the Piranhas-Açu, but was not found in this estuary during fieldwork, requiring more specific studies to understand the elements that led to the absence of its distribution in area 3, the Piranhas-Açu (RN).</p>
				<p>Mangrove fragmentation showed a negative relationship with species distribution (-0.99), but this does not indicate that one variable influences the other or that there is a cause and effect relationship between them as <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B86">Zar (2009</xref>) and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B76">Silva <italic>et al</italic>. (2022</xref>) point out when applying statistical methods such as Pearson's Correlation.</p>
				<p>The distribution of mangrove species can occur for various reasons, in response to the species' physiological limits, with variables related to salinity, air temperature, sea surface temperature, rainfall, aridity, tidal amplitude, ocean currents, the dispersal of propagules (seeds) through hydrocoria and viviparity, as well as anthropogenic actions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B82">Tomlinson, 1986</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B71">Schaeffer-Novelli <italic>et al.</italic>, 1990</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">Osland <italic>et al</italic>, 2007</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B52">Lima; Galvani, 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli <italic>et al</italic>., 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B85">Ximenes <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B49">Lacerda <italic>et al.</italic>, 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">Adame <italic>et al.</italic>, 2021</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">Madeira <italic>et al</italic>., 2023</xref>).</p>
				<p>This set of environmental conditions results in the formation of mangroves. The characteristics of the flat topography and the semi-arid climate of the coastal plains of the northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte mean that given the tidal dynamics, with an amplitude ranging from 0.0 to approximately 2.8 m on the spring tides, they reach vast areas. Where there is daily contact with the tides, the plain is colonized by mangroves, because in the higher places where only the waters of the spring tides reach, salinity becomes a limiting factor for the presence of flora.</p>
				<p>Even if species develop mechanisms to eliminate salts, there is a limit to their colonization (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B82">Tomlinson, 1986</xref>), resulting in extensive areas of salt flats, characterized by features of exposed soil or halophytic herbaceous vegetation (<xref ref-type="fig" rid="f10">Figure 4</xref>). In addition, the average annual rainfall is approximately 500 mm, with rainfall concentrated in four months, and the rivers in the Piranhas-Açu river basin have an intermittent or temporary regime, among other elements that contribute to the formation of these landscapes (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">Diniz, 2013</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">Medeiros; Pinheiro, 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">Medeiros, 2020</xref>).</p>
				<p>
					<fig id="f10">
						<label>Figure 4</label>
						<caption>
							<title>Hypersaline plains in the Piranhas-Açu river estuary, municipality of Macau (RN)</title>
						</caption>
						<graphic xlink:href="1982-4513-sn-37-e72756-gf5.png"/>
						<attrib>Source: The authors (2020).</attrib>
					</fig>
				</p>
				<p>
					<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">Medeiros and Pinheiro (2018</xref>) investigated the effects of insufficient rainfall in the Piranhas-Açu estuary, where the region's semi-arid climate is characterized by low and irregular rainfall, with high rates of potential evapotranspiration, resulting in an annual deficit of 1829.8 mm. Combined with other factors such as the number of dams in the river basin (1,536 dams) and the withdrawal of water for economic activities, the flow of rivers into the estuarine zone is considerably reduced and the source of fresh water becomes almost “null” (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">Godoy; Lacerda, 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B26">Diniz; Vasconcelos, 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">Medeiros, 2020</xref>). In the estuaries of the Brazilian semi-arid region, there is a tendency towards seasonal hypersalinity (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Morais; Pinheiro, 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al.</italic>, 2021</xref>). These conditions affect the local vegetation of the mangrove and Caatinga forests around the Piranhas-Açu, decreasing by 41.8% between 2013 and 2015 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">Medeiros; Pinheiro, 2018</xref>).</p>
				<p>In low-energy estuaries, the accumulation of sediments leads to the formation of islands and sandbanks (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Morais; Pinheiro, 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">Godoy; Lacerda, 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">2015</xref>). This process creates favorable conditions for mangrove colonization, as observed on the islands present in the estuaries of the Timonha, Aracatimirim, and Piranhas-Açu rivers (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">Morais; Pinheiro, 2011</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">Godoy; Lacerda, 2014</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B34">Godoy, 2015</xref>).</p>
				<p>In area 1, between the estuaries of the Timonha River and Ubatuba, Ilha Grande is almost 2,000 ha, and is one of the largest estuarine islands in the Northeast (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">Choi-Lima, 2017</xref>), containing two others, “Ilha do Coronel” and “Ilha dos Preás”, with approximately 700ha and 855ha, respectively. Another 11 smaller polygons of mangrove forest were mapped on islands in the course of the Timonha River with areas between 54 and 0.5 ha.</p>
				<p>In Aracatimirim, the size of the mangrove forest polygons mapped on islands is smaller, varying between 9 and 0.03 ha out of 14 polygons. On Piranhas-Açu, the largest island is 221 ha in size (west of Macau, it resembles an inverted heart, known as Maracanã Island), and the mangrove forest polygons on the islands total 145, ranging from 78 to 0.001 ha. On Mamanguape, eight islands were mapped containing eight polygons of mangrove forest, ranging from 78 to 0.32 ha.</p>
				<p>As an example of mangrove expansion, the data provided by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B56">MapBiomas (2022</xref>) from the year 1985 (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B79">Souza Júnior <italic>et al</italic>., 2020</xref>), indicated that mangrove forests in the Aracatimirim River estuary comprised an area of 24.57 ha; according to the data from this research, the area mapped in 2021 was 324 ha, resulting in a 1218% increase in mangrove areas. In addition to saline intrusion and low river flow, other global factors such as rising sea levels and climate change are driving its expansion (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">Godoy; Lacerda, 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>).</p>
				<p>Studies by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">Albuquerque <italic>et al.</italic> (2014a</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B5">Albuquerque (2015</xref>) and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">Medeiros (2020</xref>) point to the correlation between the development and extent of salt flats and climatic variables, such as water deficit, flat topography, intermittent river hydrography, coastal dynamics, and tidal oscillation. These extreme, hypersaline environments allow only a few herbaceous species to grow, which are adapted to conditions of high salinity, due to the factors mentioned above and the fact that their topography is a little higher so that only the highest tides, syzygial high tides, reach these places, causing evaporation and consequently an accumulation of salts (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B74">Schaeffer-Novelli <italic>et al</italic>., 2015</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">ICMBio, 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">Medeiros, 2020</xref>).</p>
				<p>The salt flats or apicum is of great importance because, with the tendency for sea levels to rise, mangrove forests will migrate to the areas that are now salt flats. Research shows that areas currently occupied by salt flats were once occupied by mangrove forests, indicating that this dynamic occurs periodically over geological time (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">Albuquerque <italic>et al</italic>., 2014b</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B73">Schaeffer-Novelli <italic>et al</italic>., 2016</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">Barbosa <italic>et al</italic>., 2018</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B77">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2021</xref>).</p>
				<p>Relating climatic variables to the fragmentation of salt flats, in descending order, the Piranhas-Açu estuary has a fragmentation of 674 polygons in an area of 4858 ha, with normal rainfall of 500mm/year and 8 dry months. Timonha has 96 polygons in an area of 938 ha, with an annual rainfall of 1000 mm/year and 6 dry months. Itarema (CE) has 60 polygons in an area of 146 ha, with rainfall of 1000 mm/year and 6 dry months. The Mamanguape river estuary (PB) has six polygons mapped in an area of 2.4 ha with annual rainfall of 1875mm and 3 dry months.</p>
				<p>Fragmentation in mangrove forests in the semi-arid region is quite high, with 49% of the fragments being less than 1 ha in Timonha, 71% &lt; 1 ha in area 2, and 82% of fragmentation being less than 1 ha in Piranhas-Açu. In area 4, only 2% of the fragments are smaller than 1 ha. Among the salt flats fragments, 51% in Timonha, 63% in Itarema, 69% in Piranhas-Açu, and 100% in Mamanguape are salt flats polygons of less than 1 ha.</p>
				<p>One of the negative impacts caused by fragmentation is the loss of landscape connectivity, altering the ability of species to inhabit the ecosystem (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">Jaramillo <italic>et al</italic>., 2023</xref>). The changes to the fragments are concentrated on the edges, known as the edge effect (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B81">Souza, <italic>et al</italic>., 2023</xref>), in more continental areas, at the ecotone from the salt flats to the mainland, and can occur more strongly as a result of anthropogenic activities such as deforestation and changes in land use (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">Bryan-Brown <italic>et al</italic>., 2020</xref>).</p>
				<p>The occupation of the mangroves in the study areas by aquaculture/shrimp farming and solar salt pans is evident. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">Costa <italic>et al</italic> (2022</xref>) studied ecosystem services between different landscape units in the Galinhos-Guamaré estuarine system on the semi-arid coast of Rio Grande do Norte, comparing the provision of services in the estuary/tidal channels, mangrove forest, salt flats, tidal flats, solar saltworks, and shrimp farming. As a result, it was identified that mangrove forest and salt flats areas offer 3.7 and 2.7 times more ecosystem services respectively than shrimp ponds.</p>
				<p>In areas 1 and 3, the plains are occupied by solar salt pans, and in all areas there are shrimp farms. In Area 1, due to the climate, the salt pans only operate during the dry months and are not very profitable (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">Araújo, 2013</xref>). In the state of Rio Grande do Norte, the presence of solar salt pans is evident in the estuaries of the northern coast, mainly in areas that used to be mangroves (apicum/salt flats and mangrove forests), reaching 95% of the national production of sea salt, due to local environmental conditions. In the municipality of Macau, Salinor has an area of 4,540.53 ha of evaporator and crystallizer ponds and produces approximately 45% of all Brazilian sea salt (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19">Costa <italic>et al</italic>., 2013</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">Diniz, 2013</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B78">Soares <italic>et al</italic>., 2018</xref>). According to the Associação Brasileira de Criadores de Camarão, representative entity of the shrimp farming sector in Brazil (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">ABCC, 2022</xref>), shrimp production in the states of Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte was 55.6 tons and 26 tons, respectively, in 2021; they occupy 1st and 2nd place in the national ranking, where Ceará produced 47.1% of all national shrimp and Rio Grande do Norte 21.6%. </p>
				<p>Aquaculture and solar saltworks in the municipality of Chaval (CE), in area 1, comprise 323 ha, according to the Secretaria do Meio Ambiente e Mudança do Clima do Ceará, the state agency responsible for the formulation, coordination and execution of public policies related to the environment and climate change in the state of Ceará (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Sema, 2022</xref>). In the Piranhas-Açu River estuary, the area occupied is quite significant, with 12000 ha of solar salt ponds and 2100 ha of shrimp ponds, giving a total of 14100 ha (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B70">Saldanha, 2020</xref>). The area occupied by these two types of enterprise is 43 times larger in Piranhas-Açu (area 3) than in Timonha (area 1). In Itarema, area 2, aquaculture/shrimp ponds occupy an area of 555 ha (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B75">Sema, 2022</xref>), while the occupation in Mamanguape (area 4) by carciniculture is 82 ha (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">ICMBio, 2014</xref>). </p>
				<p>
					<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">Bryan-Brown <italic>et al.</italic> (2020</xref>) point to global trends in mangrove fragmentation such as conversion to aquaculture, agriculture, and urban expansion, which are associated with deforestation. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">Gilani <italic>et al.</italic> (2021</xref>) and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B37">Grantham <italic>et al.</italic> (2020</xref>) also highlight other factors such as road construction, seen in areas 2, 3, and 4, respectively, in Porto dos Barcos (Itarema/CE), Piranhas-Açu (RN) and Mamanguape (PB). As a result, these changes cause environmental imbalances and ecological impacts that affect ecosystem functions (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B65">Polidoro <italic>et al</italic>., 2010</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">ICMBio, 2018</xref>), such as the decline in estuarine fish species (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B83">Tran; Fischer, 2017</xref>), the release of carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity and water quality (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">Atwood <italic>et al</italic>., 2017</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">Hagger; <italic>et al</italic>., 2022</xref>).</p>
				<p>
					<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18">Corte <italic>et al.</italic> (2021</xref>) provide evidence that even small mangrove fragments improve biodiversity and ecosystem functions, recognizing their importance in integrating the environment. <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B51">Li <italic>et al</italic>. (2013</xref>), <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B28">Estoque <italic>et al</italic> (2018</xref>) and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">Gilani <italic>et al</italic> (2021</xref>) highlight the establishment of mangrove nature reserves as the most effective way to protect and expand mangroves: the implementation of effective monitoring and the establishment of educational programs and projects, so that the structure and functioning of ecosystems can be perpetuated to provide ecosystem services. In Brazil, even with an advanced legislative framework, the lack of inspection and monitoring of mangroves, especially those that are not located in protected areas, is a limiting factor for the conservation of this ecosystem (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">Ferreira; Lacerda <italic>et al.,</italic> 2016</xref>).</p>
				<p>According to Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">ICMBio, 2018</xref>, p. 59), Brazilian environmental agency responsible for proposing, implementing, managing and protecting federal conservation units aimed at biodiversity conservation, 120 out of the existing 2071 Unidades de Conservação (UCs, Conservation Units in English) in Brazil are circumscribed by the mangrove ecosystem, corresponding to an area of 12,114 km², representing 87% of the ecosystem in the whole of Brazil. It should be noted that mangroves are protected nationally by Law Nº 12.651/2012, which delimits them as a APP (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B14">Brasil, 2012</xref>).</p>
				<p>The creation of protected areas requires a series of planning and monitoring measures to analyze and regulate the use of resources in protected areas, aiming for sustainable development in the ecosystems covered by Sustainable Use UCs (US), and the preservation of environments in Full Protection UCs (PI) (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">Brasil, 2000</xref>). US units aim to balance nature conservation with the sustainable use of some natural resources, while PI units focus on preserving nature, allowing only indirect use of natural resources, and thus have stricter rules and regulations.</p>
				<p>At this point, the three UCs involved in this study are part of the US category. Area 1 (estuary of the Timonha River, in the mild semi-arid environment) is located in the APA Delta do Parnaíba and area 4 has two UCs, the ARIE Manguezais da Foz do Rio Mamanguape and the APA da Barra do Rio Mamanguape. This contributes to planning and controlling the use of natural resources in these areas (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B63">Paludo; Klonowsky, 1999</xref>; <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">ICMBio, 2014</xref>).</p>
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				<title>FINAL CONSIDERATIONS</title>
				<p>The data shows a complex interaction between the distribution of mangroves and environmental variables, such as regional climate patterns. The analyses indicate that the fragmentation of mangroves is inversely proportional to the average annual rainfall, suggesting that the climate pattern with low rainfall and a greater number of dry months can lead to a greater division of mangroves, in addition to the extensive areas of apicum, as observed in the Piranhas-Açu river estuary (RN), where the average annual rainfall is approximately 500 mm with a period of 8 dry months.</p>
				<p>Furthermore, the statistical correlation between fragmentation and species distribution, although significant, does not imply causality. This highlights the need for a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms that govern these ecological relationships, as the presence and distribution of mangrove species are influenced by a series of factors, ranging from the physiological limits of the species to anthropogenic elements, such as changes in land use.</p>
				<p>The expansion of mangroves into previously unoccupied areas and the negative impacts caused by fragmentation, such as loss of connectivity and edge effects, highlight the importance of conservation measures and proper management of these ecosystems. The establishment, monitoring, and maintenance of protected areas contribute directly to the sustainable management of mangroves. Thus, a continuous effort to promote the effective conservation of these important coastal ecosystems is essential.</p>
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					<p> The authors acknowledge the support of the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brazil (CAPES) - Financing Code 001, (process nº 88887.513668/2020-00) for the granting of a scholarship during the doctoral period (Ana Caroline Damasceno Souza de Sá), the CAPES/PRINT program (Lidriana Pinheiro), the CNPQ (316941/2021) (Lidriana Pinheiro), and the Programa de Pós-graduação em Geografia (ProPGeo) at the Universidade Estadual do Ceará (UECE).</p>
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