1 Introduction

Several researchers on the vote determinants, such as Dassonneville (2016), Dalton (2013), Schmitt and Wüst (2006), Walczak, Van der Brug and de Vries (2012), assert that the decline in connections between voters and political parties in advanced democracies, in many countries, has been regarded as an indication that the long-term structural forces that shape voting behavior, identified by Campbell et al. (1960) are being replaced by short-term determinants.

For Lewis-Beck et al. (2008) the long-term vote determinants are social and demographic factors such as gender, race, social class, and party and ideological identification. And, the short-term candidates are competing in the campaign and the issues raised in the campaign especially the economic ones (Dassonneville, 2016; Valdini & Lewis-Beck, 2018).

Bélanger and Meguid (2008) and Oscarsson and Oskarson (2018) have observed that the decline in the explanatory power of the sociological determinants of choice of vote over the last decades led scholars to consider more closely the role of political and economic issues in individual electoral decisions.

For Lewis-Beck and Nadeau (2011) the Theory of Classical Economic Voting affirms that voters reward the ruler for the good times and punishes them for the bad times. Benton (2005) when examining 39 elections in Latin America emphasizes that economic adversities undermine the government in the elections, and Valdini and Lewis_Beck (2018) assert that individual economic issues greatly influence the voter.

For Hausermann and Kriesi (2011) individual economic issues prevail because they are strong indicators of loss or gain in resources, especially for low-income and low-educated voters because of their fear of being left out of their limited resources. Hooghe and Marks (2017) classify the assessment of losing (or acquiring) resources as voting rationality.

Oscarsson and Oskarson (2018), Walgrave and Lefevere (2017) and Dassonneville (2016) assert that although the long-term determinants of electoral behavior have declined in explanatory power in recent decades, there is insufficient evidence that short-term and especially economic determinants have become more important than long-term determinants.

The objective of this article is to identify, what were the vote determinants for the candidate João Dória in the municipal elections of 2016 in the city of São Paulo. For the analysis of the data we made use of binary logistic regression, due to the adequacy of the technique to the research objective as proposed by Nicolau (2014), Belluci et al. (2015) and Dassonneville (2016).

The results presented in the article contribute to the academic debate on the relative impact of variables determining long and short-term voting and their respective influences on electoral behavior. We also present the inherent limitations of the study developed and suggestions for future research.

This article is divided into six sessions. After this introduction, session 2 presents the literature review of previous studies on long-term and short-term vote determinants, session 3 presents the adopted methodology, session 4 presents the analysis of results and session 5 contains the final discussion and conclusions.

2. Theoretical framework

2.1 Long-term determinants

2.1.1 Socio-demographic variables

The sociological model of voting decision presupposes that socioeconomic and demographic aspects are decisive for voter choice (Martins Junior, 2009). This approach was characteristic of the first studies of the area, developed in the mid-1950s, based on public opinion polls, with the main variables of interest being gender, age, occupation and social class of voter (Benney, Gray, & Pear, 2013; Berelson, Lazarfeld, & McPhee, 1954; Lazarfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1965).

With the consolidation of the research developed around the theme and the advent of new methodological approaches, focused on the analysis of the effect of psychological and cognitive variables on the decision of the elect’s voter, we note the occurrence of a “decline in the sociological explanations of the vote” (Martins Junior, 2009, p. 73).

The set of socio-demographic variables selected by Nicolau (2014) is composed by: gender, age, schooling and religion. Being that, among these variables, only schooling and religion presented statistically significant results.

In this study, the group of sociological variables is composed of the same variables selected by Nicolau (2014).

2.1.2 Attitudinal variables

The analysis of the electoral behavior from the psychological perspective presupposes that this “is based on the personality structure of individuals and their belief system, regardless of the social context in which they live” (Radmann, 2001, p. 08).

In Brazil, the effect of attitudinal variables was incorporated into the already consolidated methodologies of socio-demographic analysis (Baquero & Gonzalez, 2011; Carreirão, 2002, 2007). Among the attitudinal variables addressed by the electoral studies, the ideology of voters is highlighted (Balbachevsky & Holzhacker, 2006; Carreirão, 2007; Singer, 2002) and party identification (Balbachevsky, 1992; Paiva & Tarouco, 2011; Samuels, 2008).

From the integration between the sociological and psychological presuppositions the so- called psycho-sociological approach, in which the characteristics intrinsic to the individual are analyzed in function of the position that it occupies in the current social structure (Lima & França, 2005; Radmann, 2001).

In the study by Nicolau (2014), the group of attitudinal variables is composed of party identification, self-positioning on the left-right scale and the assessment of government performance, with this being a variable characterized in the literature as a determinant of short- term electoral behavior (Lacy & Christenson, 2017; Tilley, Neundorf, & Hobolt, 2018). This set of variables selected by the author is verified in other studies that address the voting decision of the Brazilian voter (Almeida, 2008; Carreirão & Barbetta, 2004; Licio, Rennó, & Castro, 2009; Rennó, 2007; Singer, 2002).

Although the voter’s ideological orientation is theoretically presented as an important vote determinant (Carreirão, 2002; Singer, 2002), its main methodology of measurement in empirical surveys, the left-right self-positioning scales, has been pointed out as an ineffective instrument for the study of the phenomenon (Oliveira & Turgeon, 2015). Considering the Brazilian context, Oliveira and Turgeon (2015, p. 579) question the understanding by the electorate of the differences between left and right positioning. For the authors, the ideological awareness requires of the individual a degree of political sophistication that does not exist for the great majority of the Brazilian electorate, making it impossible for them to be able to establish themselves ideologically in a coherent way.

Due to the dissidences associated with the measurement of the voter’s ideological orientation, through the self-positioning scales, we opted for the exclusion of this variable from the analysis. Thus, we maintain in the theoretical model proposed in this article only the long- term attitudinal variable that measures the electoral identification of the voter.

2.1.3 Contextual variable

In the analysis developed by Nicolau (2014), the author chose to include in the analysis a variable characterized as contextual (comprising the region of residence of the voter), with the objective of identifying the effect of the regional component on the presidential vote. The results observed by the author included the influence exerted by this variable on the result of the 2010 presidential elections:

(...) the Northeast and South regions affected the result of the elections in the comparison between Dilma and Serra. By maintaining constant the effects of all other variables, living in the Northeast is a factor that increases the likelihood of voting in Dilma and decreases the likelihood of voting in Serra. In the South in turn, the results are reversed: residing in the region is a factor that increases the probability of the vote in Serra and decreases the vote in Dilma (Nicolau, 2014, p. 318).

When analyzing the influence of the regional component on the presidential vote, Marzagão (2013) suggests that the effect of the region of domicile of voters on their voting decision is due to the socioeconomic similarities observed between certain regions.

In order to adapt the contextual variable adopted by Nicolau (2014) to the scenario of the 2016 municipal elections in the city of São Paulo, we opted for the analysis of the effect of the residence of the voter in the different regions of the city of São Paulo (North, South, East, West and Central), as well as that of their non-residence in the municipality.

2.2 Short-term determinants

In contrast to the sociological and psychological perspectives of explanation of electoral behavior, the rational voting approach, structured in large part from the economic theory of the voting initially proposed in the work by Downs (1957), establishes the assumption of the voter's ability to judge, based on some rational criterion of choice, which of the available political alternatives in a given electoral context is able to maximize their individual objectives (Feddersen, 2004; Lee et al., 2016).

Tilley and Hobolt (2011) evidence that the role played by voters in the context of representative democracies, by voting for a particular candidate or political party, offers the proposition of the rationality intrinsic to the decision-making process as a fundamental aspect for the explanation of electoral behavior. For Duggan and Martinelli (2017) the rational vote gives the ruler (and his party) the conditions in which the voters meet, that is to say, make rulers responsible for the conditions of their citizens.

In this perspective, as established in the accountability model, the vote is defined not only from its instrumental function of operationalization of the process of popular representation, but rather as an indirect mechanism of control of political power, constituting as a tool available to citizens to punish or reward their respective elected representatives for their perceived performance in the course of their mandates (Brambor & Ceneviva, 2012; Nicolau, 2006; Powell Jr., 2000).

Lewis-Beck and Nadeau (2011) and Amaral and Ribeiro (2015), argue that the rewarding character of retrospective voting is associated with the influence exerted by short-term factors in determining the voter’s decision to vote.

The performance of the situationist management during the mandate (Lacy & Christenson, 2017; Lewis-Beck & Paldam, 2000; Tilley et al., 2018), as well as aspects pertinent to the dynamics of the electoral campaign period (Greene & Haber, 2015; Lobo, 2006), constitute for Dassonneville (2016) the main elements of voter rationality.

For Greene and Haber (2018) and Lobo (2006) the management performance during the term of office is indicated as the main structuring element of voter rationality. Dassonneville (2016) asserts that the study of individual rationality in the models of explanation of electoral behavior becomes substantial for the understanding of electoral volatility and results observed over time.

For Nicolau (2014) the impact of short-term determinants on the voter's voting decision is measured by the individual's overall assessment of the performance of the situationist management, included by the author in the set of attitudinal variables. In the present study, we opted for the maintenance of the same variable, with only due contextualization to the scenario of the 2016 municipal elections in the city of São Paulo, in which the municipalist situationist management refers to the then mandate of the mayor Fernando Haddad (PT), candidate for re- election.

3. Methodology

By adapting the model of determinants of the presidential vote proposed by Nicolau (2014) for the construction of a model of determinants of the vote in João Dória in the municipal elections of 2016, we decided to apply the binary logistic regression technique for data analysis, rather than the multinomial logistic regression used by Nicolau (2014).

This methodological option became necessary since the dependent variable of the present study is binary in nature: either the voter voted for João Dória or did not vote for João Dória.

According to Hair et al. (2009), the logistic regression technique is a specialized form of regression that allows the researcher to predict and explain a binary categorical dependent variable by means of the elaboration of a probabilistic model based on the reference categories of each one of the independent variables present in the model.

Due to the absence of a secondary database that would allow the exploratory analysis proposed in this article, it was necessary to develop a primary data collection instrument.

The questionnaire was drawn from the set of variables extracted from the model by Nicolau (2014), measured by the 2010 Brazilian Electoral Study. In this way, we maintained the structure of the questions as in the ESEB-2010 questionnaire, with only the necessary changes being made, necessary to contextualize the questions to the scenario of the 2016 municipal elections in the city of São Paulo.

Students enrolled in undergraduate and postgraduate courses at the School of Arts, Sciences, Humanities of the University of São Paulo (EACH-USP), who were willing to participate in the study, composed the sample of respondents, and the researchers did not select the respondents. The table below presents a description of the characteristics of the sample studied, according to the categories of variables measured.

We verified that in the sample in question the average age of respondents was 27.4 years. Considering that the selected sample was composed entirely by students regularly enrolled in undergraduate and postgraduate courses, the variable that measures the level of schooling presented a homogeneous distribution among the respondents, where 28.35% reported incomplete higher education and 71.65% had completed higher education.

We made the questionnaire available in digital format through the Google Forms platform and sent by e-mail to all students, through the Unit’s Graduation Service. The questionnaire was available for answers in between October 25, November 5, 2016. At the end of the period, 101 valid answers were obtained.

The statistical analyzes of the database were performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics software (version 21).

4. Analysis of results

The goodness of fit of a logistic regression model, according to Hair et al. (2009) can be evaluated in two ways: the evaluation of the general fit of the model based on the values of pseudo R² and the evaluation of the goodness of the overall fit of the model by means of its predictive accuracy.

The table below shows the likelihood value, and the values of the pseudos R² (Cox & Snell and Nagelkerke), which use as the basis of calculation the likelihood value.

For the analysis of the likelihood value, the closer to 0, better the goodness of fit of the model, while for the value obtained in the Cox and Snell R² and in the R² of Nagelkerke, the closer to 1, the better the goodness of fit (Hair et al., 2009). We verified that, through this approach, the tested model has statistical consistency and its goodness of fit is satisfactory.

The second approach to verifying the goodness of the overall fit of the model is by examining its predictive accuracy, obtained by the classification of Hosmer-Lemeshow test. This fit measure, unlike the pseudo R², is not based on the likelihood value, but on the prediction of the dependent variable by the independent variables (Hair et al., 2009).

As the level of significance was greater than 0.05 (desirable in the analysis of Hosmer- Lemeshow test), it is possible to conclude that, through the predictive precision approach, the model also presents satisfactory general goodness of fit.

Finally, Table 4 presents the summary of the logistic model constructed, with all variables present in equation.

With the confidence interval set at 95%, so that the independent variable is considered statistically significant, the p-value (significance) should be less than 0.05. The measurement of the impact generated by the variables, statistically significant, on the dependent variable is given by means of the analysis of the value of the coefficient of each independent variable (Hair et al., 2009).

In cases where the original value of the coefficient is positive, the calculation of the coefficient exponential has a value greater than 1. This means that, “the ratio of inequality will increase in any positive variation of the independent variable” (Hair et al., 2009, p. 290). The inverse will occur when the coefficient is negative.

In the model of vote determinants for João Dória, proposed in this article, the binary dependent variable was coded as follows: voted for João Dória (1) did not vote for João Dória (0). Thus, for the statistically significant variables, when the original value of the coefficient is negative, the independent variable will have a negative impact on voting in João Dória, whereas, independent variables with positive values in the original coefficient present a positive impact on the vote for the PSDB candidate.

According to Hair et al. (2009), the magnitude of the impact of each independent variable on the dependent variable can be obtained by means of the following calculation: (value of the exponential coefficient – 1.0) x 100. The percentage value obtained by this calculation represents the variation observed in the ratio of inequality.

Among the set of sociodemographic variables, the variables that presented statistical significance were sex and religion (category “Other”). Based on the results obtained, the fact that the voter is female negatively impacts the chance of voting in João Dória. Being a practitioner of a religion (that is neither Catholic nor evangelical) presented a positive influence on the chances of vote for João Dória.

The contextual variable, adapted from the study by Nicolau (2014), for the five regions of the city of São Paulo (including non-residence in the city of São Paulo), did not present statistical significance.

Of the variables that compose the attitudinal set, only the evaluation of the situationist management of the city of São Paulo (Fernando Haddad, from PT) obtained statistical significance (for the evaluation category “Bad/very bad”), confirming the existing evidence in the political literature (Barberia, Avelino, & Zanlorenssi, 2018; Radmann, 2001; Shikida et al., 2009), which point to the importance of this judgment, post-experience, in electing.

The results in the present study pointed out that the evaluation of the performance of the situationist management, of Fernando Haddad, as unsatisfactory (bad/very bad) was the main vote determinant for João Dória in the municipal elections of 2016 in the city of São Paulo.

5. Final Discussion and conclusions

Figueiredo (1991) points out that, although the main explanatory theories of voting are based on different theoretical assumptions, which differ in the “identification of the origins of propensities and motivations for political action” (Figueiredo, 1991, p. 15), the object of investigation in all theories remains the same: “try to answer why the political preferences revealed through voting formed and were channeled in a particular party direction” (Figueiredo, 1991, p. 15).

Within the scope of the political marketing strategies developed during the electoral disputes, the role played by research, both exploratory and descriptive, is crucial, both for the definition of the bases of the campaign of a candidate or party as well as for the evaluation of the performance of the political strategies executed (R. Figueiredo, 2002; Ribeiro, 2002).

We have verified in the political literature that studies of an academic nature that deal with the behavior of the Brazilian electorate, in different lawsuits, provide predominantly sociological interpretations of the social phenomenon in question (Balbachevsky & Holzhacker, 2006; Baquero & Gonzalez, 2011; Holzhacker & Balbachevsky, 2007; Nicolau, 2014), not tending to a strategic interpretation of the observed results, where, one could consider the outputs of the analyzes carried out as inputs for the theoretical development of the area of political marketing.

Cervellini (2002, p. 92) points to a growing sharing of theoretical and technical instruments between commercial marketing and political marketing, in the context of electoral disputes. From the perspective of the author, society has undergone a process of “de- ideologization”, where the decision to vote is more and more like the purchase decision, as a result of a process of substitution of the emphasis on theoretical and ideological positions by benefits and concrete attributes. In this context, Cervellini (2002) and Ribeiro (2002) consider that commercial marketing strategies and practices emerge as an alternative for candidates and parties to establish long-term relationships with voters, through the consolidation of a political brand.

In this scenario, analogous to the competitive environment of commercial organizations, the conceptual models, aimed at identifying determinants of the voter’s voting decision, constitute a powerful source of information for the theoretical and practical development of the political marketing discipline, since they provide not only a “picture” of the voter's decision- making process, in a given situation of choice (which can be understood as analogous to the purchase situation of a commercial product), but also strategic inputs for the positioning of candidates and / or parties in future campaigns.

From the empirical results obtained in this article, we verified that the vote determinants for João Dória in the municipal elections of 2016 in the city of São Paulo were: religion and evaluation of the performance of the situationist management (Fernando Haddad). Being that, the variable that exerted greater influence (positive) on voting for João Dória was the disapproval, on the part of the voter, of the municipal administration of Fernando Haddad.

The results presented indicate that the victory of João Dória in the municipal elections of 2016 can be explained, both due to the low influence of socio-demographic and ideological factors in the decision to vote, as long-term determinants of electoral behavior, as well as by the significant influence of voter assessment on the performance of the situationist management, which supports the argument by Cervellini (2002) regarding the process of “de- ideologization”, since the identification of the voter to a party (and consequently, to a political ideology) was not decisive in the decision to vote, and reinforces the evidence presented in the literature regarding the preponderance of short-term determinants in the voter's voting decision (Bélanger & Meguid, 2008; Dalton, 2013; Dassonneville, 2016; Lacy & Christenson, 2017; Lewis-Beck & Nadeau, 2011).

With regard to the empirical data analysis undertaken in the present study, Hair et al. (2009) consider that, in studies where regression techniques are used, the sample size should follow the minimum ratio of 5 observations per variable (5:1). Despite the minimal proportion of observations per variable, as proposed by Hair et al. (2009), having been reached in this study (the proportion observed in the model was approximately 14:1), as the number of observations in the sample grows, the greater the quality of the analysis and the possibility of generalization of the observed results (Hair et al., 2009). From the perspective of the authors, the low representativeness of the electorate of the city of São Paulo, partly by the sample studied, constitute the main limitation inherent in this research.

Having said this, we suggest, as a recommendation for future research, the application of the model of vote determinants for João Dória in the municipal elections of 2016, proposed in this article, to a sample of greater representativeness of the electorate of the city of São Paulo, which will make it possible to obtain generalizable results and, consequently, the construction of theoretical formulation of greater robustness, in relation to political marketing strategies. Given the observed importance of the short-term determinants in the voter's voting decision, as is the case of the evaluation of the situationist management, we also suggest that future studies focus on deepening the aspects that make up the evaluation of the situationist management and its relations with the dynamics of the electoral campaign period, thus enabling the understanding of the electoral phenomenon under the perspective delineated by issue ownership theory.

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