Introduction

From an epistemological point of view, the social sciences have been severely criticized, among other things, because of their lack of analytical support in assessing the effectiveness of their practices, and their mistrusting on a data-based logic¹. This type of reasoning, common in other sciences allows generating explaining and predictive higher power contributions.

According to Gil Lafuente et al.^2,3, all events, phenomena and facts surrounding the human being are integrated into a system, so it is inferred all the activity that takes place in it, the incidence of cause-effect influences it. For example, according to Rico and Arandes⁴, a rainy day will have unfavourable effects on the traffic flow, and the food and cold beverage sales. On the other hand, it will have a favourable impact for some crops; for the umbrella’s commerce, the reservoirs filling in hydroelectric power generation plants, among others. However, even with an impeccable system of planning and control, in real life, there is always the possibility of voluntarily or unwittingly ignoring or forgetting some causal relationships that are not still clear, and therefore not perceived in the processes of analysis and problem-solving.

In this process of cause-effect incidence, relations are recurrent. Therefore, it is possible to associate occurrence with the idea of the function, and it is present in all the activities and actions carried out in the company. Since all the processes existing in the different functional areas of the company are carried out sequentially so that the incidents transmit in a linked manner, it is widespread to omit some stages voluntarily and involuntarily. The incidence is associated with the idea of one group of entities effects on another one, or on itself. Likewise, this concept is related to the idea of a function and is present in all living beings' actions.

The method applied in the evaluation processes of Ecuador's HEIs, since Constituent Mandate No. 14, issued by the Constituent Assembly in 2008, is the so-called Multi-criteria Decision Method (MDM), a branch of mathematics applied to cases where there are vaguely structured problems⁴.To reliably assess learning outcomes, we used the fuzzy logic or forgotten effects model. For quality assessment purposes in an exam is established for Ecuadorian students attending the last level of university programs or careers. This test is designed and applied by the Council for Quality Assurance in Higher Education (CACES). The examination focuses on the knowledge established for the respective program or career. If more than 60 per cent of students in a degree program fail to pass the exam for two consecutive years, the degree program will be automatically abolished by CACES, without prejudice to the application of the other evaluation and accreditation processes provided for in the Constitution, the Act, and its general implementing regulations⁴. The results of the examination do not affect the student's final average grades and qualifications. If a course or program is closed, the higher education institution may not open new promotions of these programs in ten years, without prejudice to ensuring that students already enrolled complete their cycle or year of study⁵.

According to Article 11 of the Organic Law on Higher Education regulations⁶, the CACES will design and apply the national exam to evaluate careers and academic programs for senior students at least every two years. This exam results will be considered for scholarships awarding for fourth-level studies and entry into public service^4,6.

The structure of the final exam is composed of two components: a) General competencies. -They refer, as well as the basic ones, to those that are indispensable to continue learning throughout life, incorporate into the working world; and, b) Specific competences. -They are the ones that are specific to the different subjects⁷.

Forgotten Effects Theory

The phenomena and events that are perceived do not happen in isolation; instead, they are part of systems or subsystems; this means that in every activity, the cause-effect incidence is present in some way^8,9. Even with a coherent control system, there is the possibility of forgetting causality relationships that are sometimes implicit. Naturally, the relations of incidence remain hidden since it is a question of effects on effects, provoked by a cumulus of causes. It is then necessary to use tools that allow the establishment of a technical base that perceives all the information and allows its contrast with data obtained from the environment so that direct and indirect causality relations are collected^10,11.

The discarding of a stage involuntarily occurs because, in sequential processes, the incidents are transmitted in a linked manner. Each one of these omissions or "forgetfulness" implies secondary effects that affect the set of incidence relations in a combined approach^12,13.

Advocacy, as a concept, is related to that of function and is also mostly subjective. Although difficult to measure, impact analysis makes a significant contribution to decision-making.

The theory of forgotten effects begins by considering that there are two sets of elements given as:

Where μ represents the values of the Cartesian plane formed by the set of pairs of elements evaluated, defining the direct incidence matrix (figure 1), through which the cause-effect relationships that occur with different degrees between the elements of (A)- causes and the elements of (B)- effects are shown.

Figure 1.
Direct Incident Matrix

Figure 1. Direct Incident Matrix

Materials and Methods

The general aim of this investigation proposes to study the causal relationships present in academic performance, divided into the following specific objectives.

1. To systematize the theoretical elements related to academic performance and the proposed analysis tool, the Forgotten Effects Theory.

2. To analyze the existing causal relationships in the negotiators' performance, in a case study.

To this aim, the structure of this research has three sections: the third and last epigraph, applies this theory to the analysis of academic performance in the Catholic University of Cuenca, selected as a case study.

The main contribution of the proposal lies in the extrapolation of the forgotten effect’s theory to the field of education.

Primary and secondary sources of information were used to elaborate the theoretical epigraphs and revise the university documents taken as a case study. The primary sources used were unstructured interviews with university students to complement the methodological analysis results and the application of surveys to teachers for the implementation of the theory of the forgotten (Fuzzy) effects.

Results

The case of analysis is the application of problem-based learning as a teaching and learning methodology to improve academic performance and, therefore, the exit profile of the students attending the Catholic University of Cuenca in Ecuador. A set of subjects and learning results in the Engineering field were selected for this purpose.

Initially, a list of learning results and educational objectives was prepared to carry out the analysis. After this stage, a panel of 10 expert teachers related to the area of studies was selected to evaluate the list of selected elements.

Table 1. List of causes (educational objectives - EO) and effects (learning outcomes - LO).

Table 1
List of causes educational objectives EO and effects learning outcomes LO

Source: Author

The objective is to obtain an incidence matrix that reflects not only direct causal relationships but also those that, despite not being evident, exist and are sometimes fundamental for the appreciation of phenomena. To achieve this objective is necessary to establish the devices that make possible the fact that different causes can have effects on themselves and, at the same time, to take into account that some effects also can give rise to incidences on themselves. Thus, it is necessary to build two more incidence relationships, which will include the possible effects that derive from relating causes to each other and the effects on each other.

Table 4 Y Tabla 5

Source: Author

Once the matrices [M], [A] and [B], are constructed, the direct and indirect incidences are established; that is, incidences in which, at the same time, some interposed cause or effect intervenes. The composition or the max-min convolution of the three matrices was done, by using the array with the fuzzy rules.

Table 6. Fuzzy Rules

Table 6
Fuzzy Rules

Source: Author

Figure 1
Mandani Fuzzy Controller

Source. Author

Of the eleven results obtained, the largest (0.8) is taken and placed at the cause-effect intersection of matrix C.

Table 7. Convolution matrix

Source: Author.

Tabla 8 y Tabla 9

Figure 2.
The direct impact of educational objectives on learning outcomes.

Source. Author.

Figure 3
Relationship of educational objectives and learning outcomes

Source. Author

After analyzing Figure 3, the percentage of compliance with the Graduation Profile or the career educational objectives, for the period September 2016 - August 2017, is 35.49%, indicating that the learning results proposed for a career evaluation were not achieved; therefore, the results of the assessments are low (47% of students pass).

The next step is to analyze the contents of the syllabus, change the learning methodology, or update the curriculum's subjects. The application of the problem-based learning methodology takes place, and the results are those presented in Figure 4.

Figure 4
Percentage of programs contributing to learning outcomes Source Author

It is possible to demonstrate that the learning based on problems methodology, allowed to improve the learning-related results to identify, define, evaluate and formulate questions, as well as to select different alternatives for the solution of real-life situations. Nevertheless, also it was possible to identify that a problem exists at the moment of communicating the results either of written, oral or digital form.

The incorporation of ABP as a learning methodology allows us to unify the teachers and students' criteria, techniques, and rubrics, although some competencies or learning outcomes were not achieved. The tool used for measuring the learning results enables to identify the career's general weaknesses and to take the corrective improvement actions, providing a significant enhancement in the exit profile.

Conclusions

The model allowed us to measure the percentage of fulfilment of the profile of graduation from the engineering degrees of the Catholic University of Cuenca.

It is essential to update the subjects' contents so that there is a contribution to the graduation profile.

Teacher training must be relevant to the subjects to contribute better to student performance.

The learning results must be specific, according to the geographical area.

For future research it is recommended that problem-based learning be used in various areas of knowledge, for example in Clinical Psychology^14,17 and Inclusive Education^15,18. It would be important to conduct studies on problem-based learning in educational programs for children¹⁹, adolescents, adults and older adults¹⁶.

Financing: This research received no external funding.

Conflicts of interest: The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.

References

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Author notes

jcabreram@ucacue.edu.ec